Now that we are past the first month of the season and the bye weeks are starting this is where the good fantasy players will separate themselves from their competition. This is the time to focus on the depth of your roster by making sure that when a bye week arrives you aren’t stuck in a spot where you have to start a scrub. We have seen enough games to get good data and understand how teams are going to play, what teams defenses we can target and who is worth buying low on. Let’s take a look at this week’s value up and value down guys.
While other first and second year QBs have been impressive thus far this year none has been more impressive than Wentz. Wentz this year has 10 TDs and only 3 INTs and has completed over 60% of his passes. I watched a good portion of the Eagles game last week against the Cardinals and Wentz really has started to look like an elite QB. No matter what the Cardinals did early in that game he had an answer. He made it look easy as the great ones do. While he isn’t in the Brady/Rodgers/Brees category yet in 5 years he might be the best in the business.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you own Wentz in Dynasty hold onto him tight and if you don’t, see what it is going to take to try and get him.
This has to be the easiest value down in history. He lost 4 WRs to injury last week with 3 of those being season ending injuries including Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall. Not to mention things weren’t going great to begin with for Eli and the Giants. Maybe some of the new WRs surprise and Eli is still a decent fantasy player, but that isn’t what is most likely to happen. With no running game and a bad offensive line the whole Giants offense is a mess.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you can sell Eli for anything do it immediately. If you are thinking about buying low on him don’t do it.
Kamara has looked like he belongs during the first 4 games for the Saints. Combining this with the team trading Adrian Peterson this week and Sean Payton’s unspoken hatred for Mark Ingram, Kamara is in a great spot. He has shown the ability to be a good runner (5.5 yard per carry) and catch the ball (20 receptions). Put those two things together and you have a viable fantasy football RB. Kamara’s role is definitely on the upswing with the Saints.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If anyone is willing to sell I would try and buy Kamara. If you own him, unless someone offered a king’s ransom, I would hold onto him.
So, what the heck happened last week with Hyde? Hyde had been the teams lead RB for the first 4 weeks of the season and then suddenly last week, in a close game, Hyde gets less carries than Matt Breida (10-8). When asked about it after the game Kyle Shanahan said he went with the hot hand. If I were a Hyde owner this would make me very nervous. Granted Hyde is still the better back and should see the majority of reps moving forward, but at any given time you could see another week were Breida gets the lion’s share of the workload.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you can sell Hyde I would try and do so. He might not be a bad buy low candidate due to a nervous fantasy owner but do so with tempered expectations.
When Julian Edelman got hurt I wrote an article about which Patriots WRs would see their value go up or who would see theirs go down. One of the guys I had on the up list was Hogan because he is in Brady’s circle of trust. He certainly hasn’t disappointed with 5 TD grabs through 5 games. It is clear when the Patriots get towards the red zone that Brady looks for Hogan. However, Hogan is doing more than just catching TDs as he has 23 grabs for 288 yards this season on 37 targets. That is an average of over 7 targets a game over 4 catches and over 56 yards per game. These are all pretty solid numbers for a guy that is flying under the radar as a fantasy WR2. Hogan could well be on his way to a 1,000 10+ TD season.
Buy, Sell or Hold – I would buy Hogan if you can. If you own him I would hold onto him.
Bryant was supposed to be the breakout WR this year. This has not happened as he has only 15 grabs and 1 TD through 5 games. Bryant is also losing some playing time to rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster. Add on top of that QB Ben Roethelisberger looks old and done and this is not a good situation. Now, Bryant is the type of guy that could have a huge game in the next couple of weeks, but he could also continue with his lackluster production. Overall, Bryant is not trending in the right direction and with his off the field problems this is a potential disaster for owners.
Buy, Sell or Hold – I would sell if you can to someone who still believes in Bryant. If you don’t own Bryant I would stay away.
This is not a typo… Ed Dickson had 5 catches for 175 yards last week. For those of you who owned Dickson earlier in his career when he was with the Ravens this might surprise you. However, with Greg Olsen out for the Panthers Dickson has had a chance to produce and has. Beyond the breakout game against the Lions Dickson also had 4 grabs for 0ver 60 yards the week before against the Patriots. With the TE position being pretty thin Dickson could replicate Olsen’s TE1 level production here the next few weeks. While he is an older player (30) perhaps like Ben Watson he can find some success later in his career.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you have Dickson I would sell as his fantasy value will never be higher than after his monster game last week. If you don’t own him I would not buy this week as the price will be too high.
Last year the Patriots were able to effectively feature two TE’s in Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. Many thought when Allen was brought in this offseason to fill Bennett’s role and see somewhere near the numbers Bennett produced in 2016 (50 catches). While Bennett did benefit from Gronk being out for most of the season many thought Allen would offer a nice TE2 upside. That has not happened as he has 0 catches through 5 weeks. Quite frankly Allen should not be on any fantasy roster until he shows that he and Brady are on the same page.
Buy, Sell or Hold – I wouldn’t even try and sell him at this point I would just drop Allen. There has to be a better option on your waiver wire.
As always, good luck to all in Week 6.