I was talking with a friend of mine earlier today who is a good fantasy player and he was telling me how he lost his game this past week in part because he had Adrian Peterson on his bench. I asked him who he started instead and he said Ty Montgomery. To me, this is a perfect example of a bad result not a bad decision. Too many times fantasy owners blame themselves if they have a player on their bench who has a good week and a starter who didn’t. You should look at it and decide, was this a bad decision or a bad result. In this case, I told my friend I thought he had made the right decision it just didn’t work out well. Nobody was prediciting Peterson to get that many touches or to play that well so why should he have? Granted, Montgomery wasn’t a great option but he had to think going in that Montgomery’s floor was higher than Peterson’s. My advice is to keep making good decisions and the results will follow. On to this weeks stock watch.
I had Watson on this list a few weeks ago and his stock has only continued to rise since. Watson now leads the NFL with 15 passing TDs. This is incredible considering he didn’t start Week 1. What is more impressive to me is that his TD/INT ration is 3 to 1. Watson certainly looks like the real deal and with the Texans defense suffering some key injuries he is going to need to continue to produce the rest of the season.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you own Watson don’t trade him. If you don’t own Watson see if his owner thinks he is selling high and if the price is reasonable try and get him.
Earlier this season Siemian looked like a world beater and was actually on the value up list. However, after last week’s dud against the Giants and losing Emmanuel Sanders it is hard to see Siemian as a fantasy starter. Much like Watson’s 3 to 1 TD to INT rate is telling so is Siemian’s 8 TDs to 6 INTs. Things are not looking like they are moving in a good direction for Siemian.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you can sell Siemian to someone who is stuck on the first few weeks he had I would do so. If you don’t own him I would pass.
Coming into the season it looked like Lewis wouldn’t have much of a role for the Patriots behind Mike Gillislee and James White. However, over the last few weeks Lewis’s role has gradually increased including his 11 carries for 52 yards and a TD last week against the Jets. Gillislee fumbled in that game and Lewis took advantage of the extra carries scoring for the 2nd time in the last 3 games. If Lewis gets more involved in the passing game he could really be a great value for fantasy owners. Lewis is also the teams primary kick returner adding another layer of value to leagues, like Dynasty Sports Empire, where you get points for return yards.
Buy, Sell or Hold – I would try and buy Lewis now while the value is still relatively low. If you own Lewis I would hold onto him as you might have a diamond in the rough if his role continues to expand.
When Dalvin Cook got hurt many thought Murray would become the RB1 for the Vikings. Since that injury Murray has 27 carries for 59 yards and is averaging just 2.4 yards per rush this season. Compare that to Jerick McKinnon who has had 31 carries for 164 yards the last two games and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season. It is clear that Murray is the inferior player to McKinnon and should continue to lose touches every week due to his lack of productivity. The other challenge for Murray is McKinnon is the superior pass catcher as well. Overall, this is not a good situation for Murray right now. Barring an injury I don’t see Murray’s stock rising the rest of this year.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If anyone wants to buy Murray from you and you own him make the deal. If you don’t own Murray I would keep it that way.
Last year Agholor was a laughing stock, but to his credit he has really turned the corner this year. So far this season he has 20 catches for 321 yards and 4 TDs where as last year in 15 games he had 36 catches for 365 yards. Agholor might just be another example of the 3rd year WR breakout. While he isn’t going to put up huge WR1 numbers he has become a solid fantasy contributor with at least 3 catches in his last 3 games adding TDs in his last two. In a deeper league, like DSE, Agholor is a valuable piece to have as a bye week WR fill in or WR4/5 type player.
Buy, Sell or Hold – Depending on what the price is I would consider buying Agholor. If you own him I might see what someone would offer but wouldn’t be in a hurry to move him.
Every year in the preseason listening to the fantasy sports channel on SiriusXM the hosts say this is going to be the breakout year for Parker. You watch Parker play and he can do it all. This is his 3rd NFL year which, as pointed out above, is when many WR breakout. Parker was being drafted early this season with an ADP of 71. So far this season he has 19 catches for 236 yards and a TD. All of these are lower numbers than Nelson Agholor as mentioned above. Parker missed last weeks game against the Falcons with an injury and could miss this week’s game as well. At some point in time his talent needs to turn into real fantasy production. While his stock could eventually go back up it isn’t trending in the right direction.
Buy, Sell or Hold – I would sell if you can but not give him away. There is someone in your league that still believes in Parker and will pay for him. If you don’t own him I would stay away based on expected cost.
Kittle got off to a slow start this season with only 10 catches in the first 4 weeks of the season. In the last two weeks he has had 11 catches for 129 yards and a TD. With the 49ers moving to a rookie QB, who was Kittle’s QB in college at Iowa, I would expect Kittle to continue to be a guy who sees a good amount of targets. Frankly there aren’t many other options for the 49ers beyond Kittle and Pierre Garcon. Kittle will also benefit from playing in the TE friendly system of Kyle Shanahan.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you have Kittle I would hold onto him. If you don’t have him, and the price isn’t too high, he is a guy I would try and acquire. I see Kittle’s stock going up even more here in the next few weeks.
Howard is a physical freak of nature at 6’6” and 250 pounds. So far this season he has not been a fantasy asset with only 5 catches for 107 yards and a TD. More than half of those yards came on his 58 yard TD catch in Week 3. Howard has not had more than 2 receptions in any game this season and seems firmly behind Cameron Brate on the TE pecking order and behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries and others for targets. Howard is going to be a good NFL player but it doesn’t look like he will be a good fantasy player this season.
Buy, Sell or Hold – If you are rebuilding your dynasty team I would try and get Howard as I do think in the future he will be a contributor. If you have Howard I would hold him.
As always, good luck to all in Week 7.