The next three years…
Most of us who follow fantasy sports are in at least one keeper league. If you are lucky enough, you will even find yourself in one that actually lasts longer than a single season. This series is going to focus on the next three years and the changes we are going to see
Why is age important?
The average age of every goalie to play so far this season is 29.29 years old.
|Worsley – Age 46||Bower – Age 46
Guidolin – Age 16
I would risk to say that the age of retiring goalies will get younger to the 35-38 year group in the up coming years because of the butterfly technique. The butterfly has been around for a while but even if you look at Patrick Roy back earlier this decade, (along with other butterfly goalies), they don’t nearly go down as much as they do right now and their butterflies are now called half-butterflies.
The new style today is an absolute nightmare to the knees and hips. I’m not saying that all NHL goalies go down on every single shot, but just imagine how many times they do go down during a game, include practices, scrimmages, and other wear and tear, it’s going to catch up.
If I were starting a keeper league, or am in the middle of a run, I would start to look at the younger crowd knowing that in time age will pay off.
There are only a handful of guys over the age of 35 right now who are still producing.
For the most part, if you act now, you may still get some value out of these guys. There are a couple guys who are still playing, and when healthy playing well, but just are not consistant enough for you to get any value out of: C Mason (35), Nabokov (36), Roloson (42)
The next group of guys who are headed towards this ‘near end of career’ list I would also not be drafting due to the shortening of the goal tender career we will start to see. For all intensive purposes, I will earmark the age of 32 as very questionable to draft if our goal is long term.
- Roberto Luongo (32)
- Niklas Backstrom (33)
- Jean-Sebastien Giguere (33)
If you are currently in a league with someone off that top list of older goal tenders, one option maybe the ladder technique where you slowly start trading up, or in this case down, in age. Luongo is the only guy who may bring you long term value from this last list but given his shaky start this season I wouldn’t want to draft him.
This leaves me with a list of 44 goalies who are on active rosters, plus those who are not yet in the NHL to form the best of the best over the next three seasons.
Criteria That will be used:
- How many wins the goaltender will pick up over the next three years.
- The team they play and the age of that team
- Where they sit on the depth chart
- How many years before they become a number one. If they already are a number one goalie, they obviously have an advantage.
- Proneness to injury
- The potential to be a starting goalie. If they are destined to be a backup, then they are penalized quite a bit
Be sure to check out Part 2 which will cover those ranked in the fifth tier later this week.