Each week I will highlight some stats that I feel help paint a better picture of a player’s performance and/or projected performance. The first entry will focus on two player’s who have changed teams this off-season and whether their Fantasy Stock has improved, declined, or stayed relatively the same, and at what value you should or should not buy them at.
Edwin Jackson: Buying if at Big Lot Value
- Jackson’s BB% was at 10.3% for first two months of the 2011 season, 5.8% BB% from May to end of August, and 7.3% for August and September.
- Jackson’s BB/9 was 4 plus for first two months of the 2011 season, 2.3 BB/9 from May to end of August, and 3.0 for August and September. (League avg. in 2011 was 3.1)
- MLB DSR Rankings (best to worst): Nationals 6th, Cardinals 20th, and White Sox 23rd
- In 2008 and 2009 EJax had a GB/FB rate less than 1.00. From 2010-2011 his GB/FB rate was 1.55 and 1.40 respectively. (NL avg. in 2011 was 1.26 GB/FB).
I have never owned Jackson in any Fantasy Baseball league, but that trend may end this year. Edwin Jackson’s history has shown us that he can be a very erratic pitcher at times and a very good pitcher at times. He has yet to put together a full year of solid production, but he is only 28 years old and has shown some improvement in last couple years. I do not suggest you reach for EJax, but if he is available at pick 170 (or later) he is worth a flier, because he should provide a slightly higher return value. His new team, the Nationals are not considered a good defensive team, but according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) rating the Nationals are extremely better then the two teams he played for in 2010. The Nationals are young and with another year of experience under their belt, and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, you have to feel Nationals will show some improvement defensively, which will only help the ground ball pitching Edwin Jackson’s chances of exceeding current ADP expectations.
Prince Fielder: Would Buy Over Teixeira, but rather find value at position later in drafts.
- Only player to play in all 162 games last season.
- Lead MLB in Intentional Walks with 32, eight more then the next closes player, (Matt Kemp 24 IBB’s).
- Of the 24 HR’s Prince hit at his 2010 home park, 10 of them would have failed to clear the outfield wall at his new home for 2011, Comerica Park. ( http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/category/_/name/mlb-2 )
With the news that Leyland will have free swinging Delmon Young batting behind Prince, instead of say Alex Avila, you can expect Fielder’s IBB totals to possibly double. Add in the fact that Prince will have to adjust to American League pitching, along with at least a part-time role as a DH, and you can expect many of Prince’s power numbers to regress. If you miss out on the top tier first basemen of Cabrera, AGon, Pujols, or Votto I would recommend waiting to draft a first basemen later in the draft. But, if you really feel like you need to get a first basemen in the second round I recommend drafting Prince over Teixeira. I’d rather own a player who will be walked a lot, alas Bonds or Pujols, then a first basemen that is speaking of “bunting more this season,” as Teixeira was recently quoted saying.
For more statistical insight be sure to listen to the RotoInfo.com Fantasy Nomad Podcast here http://www.blogtalkradio.com/rotoinfocom.rss