Average Draft Position (ADP) is a standard metric used to gauge where a player will be drafted compared to other players as picked by a large sample size of fantasy owners. Finding value in those picks is often tricky, but getting a decent Return On Investment (ROI) is often easier after ADP 150.
For this article, I am offering three hitters and two pitchers that ought to exceed most expectations in fantasy production and will likely be available beyond Round 12 in a startup draft.
Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins, 3B, RF
Fantrax ADP: 266.01; Rotowire ADP: 253
Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton wallowed in obscurity and lacked name recognition when they were young feature players in Miami. Third-year player Anderson is no different and would be on more fantasy owners’ radars if he played for a large market team. Anderson has shown consistent improvement in nearly every major stat category and predictive metric (ex., dropped his line drive rate by 8.4%, increased his Isolated Power from .127 to .207 and increased his Hard Hit Percentage 6.1% to 44.3%). In the past, Anderson has played in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. However, the outfield fences are moving in this year, and Anderson has the potential to hit 30 HR and 100 RBI. The 26-year-old will likely only play at RF this year; however, his multi-position eligibility is not something to overlook.
Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals, 3B, RF
Fantrax ADP: 179.3; Rotowire ADP: 186
Like Anderson, Dozier is another third-year player making a move from 3B to RF but still maintains multi-position eligibility for 2020. The former first-round pick seemed to have jumped on the launch angle bandwagon in 2019 (increased Fly Ball rate by 7.3%) and ended the year with 26 HR in his first full season. Dozier strikes out too much (career 26.6%) but showed improvement in reducing swings outside the zone and increased his contact rate on pitches in the zone from his rookie year in 2018. Dozier surprisingly finished in 7th in the league in Hard-Hit Ball percentage (45.3%) and also has 30 HR, 100 RBI potential for 2020.
Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals, SS
Fantrax ADP: 181.67; Rotowire ADP: 194
Despite completely flopping at the plate after May last year, the All-Star finished 12th overall in DSE total points scoring for Shortstops and yet managed to produce 30 HR, 97 R, 78 RBI and, nine stolen bases. The 26-year-old is in no danger of losing his job in the field and will likely put up similar stats this year, hopefully without the peaks and valleys. Where DeJongs’ value lies is most comparable shortstops will be off the board in the first 100 picks.
Joe Musgrove, Pittsburgh Pirates, SP
Fantrax ADP: 231.15; Rotowire ADP: 226
Most fantasy owners deny Musgrove respect because he is oft-injured and plays for a notoriously bad defensive team. Since coming to Pittsburg in the trade that sent Garret Cole to the Astros two years ago, Musgrove has consistently had his Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) half a run less than his ERA. The 26-year-old right-hander managed 170.3 innings pitched in an injury-free season. The Pirates have a new pitching coach this year and, expectations are high that fresh eyes and a sabermetric approach will improve Musgrove’s performance. Expect Musgrove to Start 35 games, throw 180 innings and produce quality starts in at least half of his outings.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies, SP
Fantrax ADP: 422.64; Rotowire ADP: 419
Nobody is rushing to draft the 25-year-old right-hander with ADP beyond 400. I also won’t waste your time telling you why he is pedestrian at best. I will tell you that when Eflin is on his game, he is terrific (had a 2.83 ERA over his first 14 starts last year and had a strikeout rate of 22.5% in 2018). Assuming Eflin holds off competition (pay attention to the Pirates Spring Training depth chart), he has the potential to accumulate enough stats in a fantasy total points scenario to land in the Top 50 starting pitchers by season’s end. Not bad for a projected 30th round pick. Take a chance and reach a little and draft Eflin ahead of his ADP for a potentially high ROI.
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