Too often, I read articles, listen to podcasts, or watch YouTube videos about fantasy baseball and notice from a careful analysis that they are not speaking directly to me. What do I mean by that? For example, I might listen to a podcast, and the person maintains Adalberto Mondesi is a second-round value based on his projected steals. The narrator never mentions the league’s scoring format, the number of teams, or roster construction – all those factors matter. In this article, I will discuss how format, league size, and roster requirements affect player evaluation.
At Dynasty Sports Empire (DSE), we have an opportunity to play in three different scoring formats (Roto, Cats H2H, and Total Points H2H). We use a hybrid Dynasty/Keeper system (as opposed to redraft), various sized leagues (12, 14, 16, 24, or 30 teams), and different roster requirements across our leagues (Deep leagues start other numbers of players and hold over fewer players year over year). In many leagues outside of DSE, there are two catcher-mandatory leagues. Many leagues only roster half the players we do – all of which affects player evaluation significantly.
All of this is important for context. A good fantasy baseball General Manager has to be familiar with their league rules and scoring statistics because they affect a player’s value. All these factors and variables must influence your player evaluation and how you might interpret advice or assessments by industry analysts. Why? The majority of print, radio, or video experts are talking about Roto leagues, and at DSE, nearly 70% of teams play in Total Points H2H leagues.
The first thing I would like to address is league size. As pointed out, DSE baseball leagues can be anywhere from 12 to 30 teams. I am only speaking from myself here, but this matters to me. I tend to be more aggressive in drafting and making Free Agent (FA) acquisitions in smaller leagues with fewer teams. The larger the field and the deeper the player pool goes, I find myself more conservative in picking players. Smaller fields mean there are more players available, and the FA pool will be deeper season long. I can gamble more so on breakout/bounce-back candidates, injury-prone players, or closers in volatile situations in those leagues. In a 30-team league, I will take fewer chances because the risk/reward payoff is so much more dangerous and could result in a season fraught with disappointment and cellar-dwelling.
Most analysts who put forth rankings do not stipulate what format they are referencing. Most lists reflect more standard 5×5 Roto formats, and they seldom account for H2H Total Points leagues or more progressive 6X6 Roto leagues. Standard 5×5 Roto formats typical count AVG, Runs, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP, Wins, Ks, and Saves. For example, Aaron Judge would be more favorable in a standard 5×5 Roto than a total points league what also counts his On-Base Average and Strikeouts. Similarly, Judge would not be as profitable in the DSE 6×6 Roto league. The DSE Roto leagues count Runs, 2B/3B, HR, RBI, net SB, OBP, ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts, Ks, and Saves and Holds. In a traditional Roto league, a relief pitcher in a set-up role mostly gives you points in three counting stats; in a 6X6 league, that Set-up man figures prominently in counting Holds.
I was recently involved in a discussion on social media when a poster demanded to know how it was even possible for anyone to rate Ronald Acuna Jr ahead of fellow outfield Juan Soto. In his mind, this was not even open for debate – Soto is just better in every regard. I tried to point out that in some leagues that roster specific outfield positions (LF, CF, RF), Acuna has more inherent value by qualifying at two positions versus Soto’s lone CF. I additionally bought up that different counting stats and scoring systems will view these players in other lights. In the end, I made the point that asking a general question about who is better is folly because of different scoring systems, rosters, etc. The problem was the question, not the answers. But, when you read “expert” advice, you only look at a solution without considering the question. The problem becomes exacerbated.
Let’s look at Juan Soto over different scoring systems and rules. First, you should know that I am using just one set of projections for all these comparisons. Fangraphs.com provides six different ones for every player, and I usually go with the most conservative because I tend to play in large fields with deep rosters.
In a traditional 5X5 15-team Roto, Soto is ranked third overall and second as a general outfielder. In DSE 6X6 Roto and Cats leagues (both use the same counting stats), Soto is first overall and at his position. Total Points H2H tells a different story altogether, though. In a standard 14-team league, Soto ranks fourth in projected total points scored but comes in at 21st in overall value because of roster requirements and eligibility (based on my algorithms). However, Soto ranks first in LF in both points and value, making him the apparent top player at the position if you are using a Tiers system to draft. In a 30-team Total Points H2H league, Soto value ranks second overall (best hitter behind pitcher Gerrit Cole) and fourth in total points. That is a 19 player value differential in just Total Points scoring, just because of league size and player scarcity. Hopefully, you can see where this is going and how the format, league size, and roster requirements profoundly affect player evaluation.
Soto is clearly a top player that should not be overlooked. However, for a better comparison, let’s use Mondesi as mentioned above:
15 Team 5X5 Roto – 43rd overall, 9th SS, and Tier 2
14 Team 6X6 Roto – 44th overall, 9th SS, and Tier 1
14 Team Tot. Pts. – 60th overall, 14th SS, and Tier 4
30 Team Tot. Pts. – 98th overall, 15th SS, and Tier 3
In these examples, I used the same projection system, and yet, you can see how the factors have a dramatic effect on the value of a player.
In conclusion, know your scoring system, rules, roster size, and requirements. Context is so important for evaluating players for a fantasy GM. Be careful when listening to fantasy advice on-air, print or video, because if they do not specify these factors, they are likely not talking to you.
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