Recently, I have fielded a lot of questions about how I evaluate an orphan team to decide if I would want to take it over. Why now, more than in the past? I generally do not know the answer to that question, but since the question has come up a few times, I figured an article on this very topic might be interesting. Now, admittedly, I do not have a plan or schedule for this article, so I will be shooting from the hip – if you will. I should also mention that this process is specific to Dynasty Sports Empire (DSE) orphans but can work in just about any dynasty or keeper league if the number of kept players year-to-year is worthwhile.
I want to start by saying that orphan evaluation is subjective to each person’s playstyle, so I will also state that my preference is to go young – for those of you who know me, this should not be much of a surprise. How young depends on how bad the team is that I am evaluating and how many moveable pieces are on the team. I say moveable pieces because I generally only look at “ugly” orphans, which begs to ask the question, how ugly is ugly? Well, the easiest way to answer is that would be to say I will usually only look at a team if it has been vacant and passed over for a few months. Now you may ask why anyone would take an orphan with no chance of winning now or in the foreseeable future? However, the answer is simple; I love a challenge, so if that means I take on a team that requires a complete tear-down and rebuild, then so be it, I am all in!
Now that I have explained the type of orphans I look for allows me to dig into what I look for and the process that I will go through in determining if I want to take on another project. The team I am evaluating does not necessarily need to have stars on the orphan team – although I am certainly not against having one big-name player, I can flip for a haul of youth and minors credit picks. Instead rather, the first thing I look at is the caliber of pitching the orphan team possesses. Typically, the pitching on most orphans – and the biggest reason the team is orphaned – is sub-par at best. Sub-par pitching, however, does not necessarily translate to not usable. I look for how many #3 thru #5 pitchers are on the team and, hopefully, top-level set-up relievers. If I can find 5 to 6 sellable pitchers, I will move onto evaluating the hitting.
Hitting is a bit trickier to sell, especially in the older leagues. When evaluating an orphaned team, a general rule of thumb is to hope for 1 to 3 top-100, preferable with one being at top-50, non-catcher, and non-utility only player. Like sellable pitchers, the idea would be to flip any hitters for, preferably, young pitchers and minors credit picks. I specifically say young pitchers because pitchers are highly coveted in DSE leagues and are usually the determining factor when building a team to make a run. With that being said, even though I have no intention of making a run with this rebuild, I will need to start hoarding young pitchers who are either highly touted prospects or with better-than-average up-side – the latter being a gamble, but that is what I am doing here after all isn’t it? Rolling the dice on youth while trading away current, proven, usable pieces. This is where research and projections come into play, hoping I am making smart long-term decisions.
Perhaps I should back-track slightly and say that my prospect research usually goes relatively deep. With the sheer volume of leagues I am currently in, not to mention the depth of kept talent in most leagues, my prospect rankings list is roughly 850 to 1000 players deep. I will also tier the rankings lists according to each player’s expected MLB arrival. The prospect rankings list ties into what I consider the third stage of orphan evaluation, prospect talent. Since I will say I am a bit of a prospect homer, the icing on the cake for me is if I see a handful of prospects, I have ranked in the top-100. It should also be no surprise, I am a bit of a nerd when it comes to statistics and prospects, but then again, just about all great dynasty owners are nerds in these two areas – exhilarating, I know!
The fourth and final stage of the orphan evaluation is to look at the league’s player pool. Here is where a second list I prepare every off-season comes into play; my sleepers list, which I generally list between 350 and 500 players – again, nerd, I know! I am looking for players who are generally not rostered that could impact their team this upcoming season. For this list, I do not discriminate by age or position; I am merely looking for guys that I can draft or pick-up on the waiver wire who I could potentially sell at the trade deadline to a team that is making a run this season for minors picks in next seasons draft.
Of course, there are three other variables I will look at during my orphan evaluation: previous years’ standings, current credits, and previous season trades. These three components are more ancillary looks I will consider but can and have deterred me from taking on an orphan. Allow me to explain how and why.
The previous seasons’ standings would show me if the orphaned team were either mismanaged or really is just awful. By dividing how many actual points, the team scored the previous season by how many points the final roster should have scored for a complete season; you get a percentage. This percentage for most teams with an active owner can be between 70 to 85%. If the owner was missing in action or did not care to set a lineup, this percentage will, generally, be below 65%. That is a clear indication of mismanagement. A perfect example of this can be seen in the following example:
League: D8 // Season: 2018
Orphan team: Str8Sur5L
Actual total points accumulated (based on lineups set): 9,458.7
Theoretical optimal points (based on the final roster): 16,503.05
Percentage: 57.31%
Same League > Team that finished in first that season
Actual total points accumulated: 15,021.317
Theoretical optimal points (based on the final roster): 19,456.4
Percentage: 77.21%
The current credits will show me if the previous owner valued and understood the importance of credits or took a purely win-now mentality. Those who play dynasty games know it doesn’t work and is generally unsustainable in the long-term. Finally, looking at previous season trades for the entire league will give me an idea of how active the league members are and if the previous owner traded away the farm for trash or mid-range prospects. Of these three components, the biggest deterrent is the lack of credits and draft stock. Because my process is to go young, the biggest deal-breaker would be to find the previous owner traded away the team’s future currency (aka next season minors picks). I can, and have, worked around just about every other obstacle but that one, specifically, maybe the Mount Everest of hurdles to overcome.
The final comment I want to add about orphan evaluation is do not be afraid. Once you have decided to take on the team and commit to a rebuild, do just that – rebuild it to whatever your preferred strategy. In the example, I listed here, the rebuild would be what some would call a fire-sale of veterans for youth and picks. Admittedly, you will get almost definitely hear (read) grumblings from owners who lost out on players you want to move. You will also, most likely, “lose” many trades upfront because anytime you trade proven veterans for an unproven prospect, most people will vote against your side of the trade, but that is the beauty of trading. To see something that maybe no one else sees and acquire future usable pieces to dominate your league one day. I wish I could say there is an exact science to a tear-down and rebuild, but, alas, there is not. The best you can hope for is to win on some of the prospects you find yourself buying and hope you acquire the right balance of opportunity players to continue the hoarding of youth for the following seasons ahead.
As always, I hope you found some useless insight, or knowledge, in my never-ending yammering about baseball. I know I’ve stated this before in other posts, but I love baseball and every aspect of the game. I can, have, and will continue to get, mildly, carried away with certain topics and posts I write, but that is the beauty of baseball, in my mind. The fact that you can, in fact, lose yourself in just about any facet of the game and indulge in what makes you happy. Because, after all, it just a game at the end of the day, but a game that, in some semblance, brings a smile, grin, or grimace to one’s face for, sometimes, no particular reason what-so-ever.
Feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @drunkenangelz.