Every season fantasy baseball owners are tasked with the daunting task of ranking players before their drafts. Many owners, such as myself, typically use the previous seasons’ rankings as a basis to project what a player may do in the coming season. We specifically look for two particular types of players to manually adjust their rankings during this process – usually up in both cases. The first is sleeper candidates, which we at Dynasty Sports Empire (DSE) have covered in a couple of different articles; the other is the bounce-back candidates. Bounce-back players are, typically, players who had a poor previous season who we – as owners – feel will change this upcoming season, usually either due to being on a new team or recovering from an injury. Today I will be highlight 10 players who will outperform their 2020 stat line in 2021. However, I first want to set some rules for my selection. To qualify for my list, a player must have played in at least 50% of the 2019 games for hitters or 12% of the games for pitchers and scored at least 50% fewer fantasy points – according to DSE scoring – in the 2020 season. With that and further ado, let’s get started.
Domingo German, P, NYY
Domingo German was suspended for the entire 2020 season and, as such, not eligible to play. In 2019, he posted an 18-4 record with a 9.63 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, and 1.89 HR/9. Coming into 2021, German will be 28-years-old and should easily slide into the Yankees rotation. He may very well be worth taking a late-round flyer on in your league.
Eduardo Rodriguez, P, BOS
Eduardo Rodriguez was an unfortunate victim of COVID in 2020, missing the entire season due to complications with COVID-19. In 2019, however, he posted a 19-6 record with a 9.43 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, and 1.06 HR/9. Coming into 2021, Rodriguez will be 27-years-old and has already been given a full go to start spring training. I expect Rodriguez to be the opening day starter for the Sox and remain atop the rotation for the season’s duration.
Noah Syndergaard, P, NYM
“Thor” had Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in March of 2020, and it isn’t expected back until midway through the 2021 season. However, in early February, Syndergaard was said to “look good while throwing in a bullpen session,” which is encouraging considering it hasn’t even been a full year since his surgery.
Obviously, the Mets would love to see Syndergaard pitch at something close to his 2019 form where he posted 9.2 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9, and a 4.28 ERA. Keep a close eye on Noahs’ spring training reports, but so far, everything I’ve read points to a Thor reunion in the NYM rotation!
Aaron Sanchez, P, SF
Aaron Sanchez, similar to Mr. Syndergaard above, is coming off TJS. The questions surrounding Sanchez have never been about his stuff. It has, however, been about his command and health. He is said to be healthy and his command, thus far, seems to be good. San Francisco has a great track record with pitchers and pitching projects. According to Fantrax ADP, Sanchez is going 929, which would be the 66th round in a 14-team league, or essentially a free-agent pick-up. I like Sanchez as a late-round dart with tons of upside in 2021.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, BAL
If you want a feel-good story for 2021, look no further than Trey Mancini. Here is a man who flat-out beat cancer during a pandemic and just wants to play baseball! While the Orioles have stated that Mancini will predominately play 1B – meaning he will most likely lose his OF eligibility next season – I expect him to hit at something close to his stellar 2019 numbers. He may not be a 35 home run, 106 run, 97 RBI player this year, especially with how bad the Orioles look, but 25 home runs, 85 runs, and 85 RBIs may not be out of the question.
Austin Meadows, OF, TB
Austin Meadows had a terrible 2020 season, mainly because, I believe, he was never allowed to get hot. He struggled in the batters’ box, slashing .205/.296/.371, had a 32.9% K%, and posted a .292 wOBA. How that translates to fantasy points, in 2019, Austin was the 19th best OF, averaging 4.49 PPG, whereas, in 2020, he didn’t rank within the top-120 OF’s. While I don’t feel these stats indicate Meadows’s actual value, with a full season of play ahead of him in 2021, I will gladly buy on Meadows, especially at his current ADP of 91 or a mid 6th round pick in 14-team leagues.
Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC
Kris Bryant was another victim of the shortened 2020 season by not having enough at-bats to get hot and bring up his career-low slash line of .206/.293/.351, career-low 8.2% BB% and career-low wOBA .285. In terms of how that translates to fantasy points, in 2019, Bryant was the 9th best 3B averaging 4.3 PPG, whereas, in 2020, he was the 47th best 3B averaging 2.53 PPG. Bryant has a current ADP of 115 in Fantrax, which translates to an 8th round pick in 14-team leagues. Look for Bryant to improve on a terrible 2020 season by grabbing what could be 6th round value in the 8th round of your upcoming drafts.
Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY
Some people may be surprised to see Torres’s name in this list, but it will make sense when you dig into his numbers. In 2020, Torres posted a career-best 13.8% BB% and 17.5% K%. However, he also posted a career-worst .243 AVG and 3.7% Barrel%. How that translated to fantasy scoring was interesting, Torres in 2019 averaged 4.3 PPG, or 6th best SS, whereas, in 2020, he averaged 2.2 PPG or 37th best SS. I fully expect Torres to bounce-back up to be a top-10, if not top-5 fantasy SS in 2021 and the years to come.
Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU
Bregman had his first “decline” season since entering the league back in 2016. He posted a slash line of .242/.350/.451, with a .345 wOBA, 3.9% Barrel% and 33.6% HardHit%. Translated in terms of fantasy points, Bregman dropped from the #1 overall 3B in 2019 to the #25 3B in 2020. I believe Bregman has another victim of the shortened season and couldn’t go on a hot streak to bring up his numbers. Bregman, in 2021, should once again find himself in the top-5 fantasy 3B list.
Victor Robles, OF, WSH
As you have probably noticed, a few of the players I’ve mentioned in this list are here simply because of the shortened 2020 season, and as such, the player wasn’t able to get hot to correct a slow start to the season. Robles is yet another player in this category. He posted a .220/.293/.315 slash line with a .273 wOBA in 2020 and dropped from the 37th best fantasy OF in 2019 to outside the top-100 in 2020. I expect a bounce-back from Robles in 2021 to be in the top-50 OF’s, but given the lack of depth in the Nationals lineup, I don’t see much higher for Robles to climb.
Oscar Mercado, OF, CLE
The final player on my list the much-debated Oscar Mercado. I’ve read numerous opinions on Mercado this past off-season ranging from he had a down season to he was a one-season wonder. I believe the truth is somewhere in there but leaning more towards the idea he had a down season. By all accounts, Mercado was terrible in 2020, but he’s still young, on a rebuilding Indians team, and is penciled in as the starting CF for the Indians this season. He also doesn’t have much competition with Bradley Zimmer and Billy Hamilton behind him on the depth chart. Perhaps my boldest prediction yet, but look for Mercado to jump back into the top-50 OF’s in 2021.
As always, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @drunkenangelz.