Fantasy “Experts” often disagree on players heading into a season. In this new series, the tradition continues as two analysts present their cases for whether a player will ascend to star status or wind up being a disappointment for your fantasy roster. One expert will offer the “pros,” and the other will counter with their “cons.” Once Brett Siegel and Brian Daring are done – hopefully, you (a now more informed fantasy GM) can make a better decision about the player discussed and decide who has won this Player Profile Clash.
Pro – Brett Siegel
The fantasy value of Jake Cronenworth can be a somewhat polarizing conversation in the fantasy community. Anytime a player breaks out in a shortened rookie MLB debut, questions arise: “Is he overrated”?; “Will he be prey to the sophomore slump”?; “Is he who he showed us he could be last season”? I’m here to tell you I think Cronenworth is the real deal.
The 26-year-old finished tied for second in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year in 2020 and has oodles of talent going forward. Last year, he qualified at 1B, 2B, and SS; rumor has it he will spend time in the OF this year to ensure his bat plays most games. The ability to be inserted into a lineup at four various positions is a huge plus. But why do the Padres want his bat in the lineup as much as possible? Let’s look at the metrics that influence his hit tools, plate discipline, power, and speed.
To begin, Cronenworth had an above-average wOBA of .350 last year. His xwOBA was .383, just shy of elite status. As good as he was, the statistical expectation was that he should have been better – this is supported by stats like Barrel Rate (10.5%) and Line Drive Rate (25.2%). Plate discipline was remarkable last year: Cronenworth had a K-Rate of 15.6%, a Swinging K-Rate of 5.8%, and only chased bad pitches 19.2% of the time, which is in line with what he did for his minor league career. Cronenworth showed flashes of power to the gaps last year (finishing inside the MLB Top 20 for 2020). Cronenworth is fast, too; his sprint speed ranks in the 92nd percentile, making him an asset to both the base paths and the field. San Diego will find a way to get Cronenworth’s bat in the game regularly, and I project an above-average year (.280-10-70-50-10) for a player that isn’t a full-time starter. Cronenworth is precisely the type of player you want on your roster to plug into any of four positions. Will the dreaded sophomore slump victimize him? The metrics suggest otherwise.
Con – Brian Daring
Jake Cronenworth will always be a good ballplayer with a long career ahead. He’s the versatile, hard-working player every manager wants. He makes excellent contact to all fields, frustrating opposing shifts. In 2020, he equally pulled and hit the ball to the opposite field, each over 30% of the time. When he swung at a pitch, he made contact 85.3% of the time.
But will these skills translate to fantasy assets? He will get on base and steal a few for your roto team. He will enhance your BB to K ratio for your points league. And that’s about it. He won’t contribute in any significant way to your power categories in roto (HR/RBI/2B+3B) or pile up points for extra-base hits in head-to-head leagues. If you want a sneak peek into the kind of player you’re buying, let’s take a look at his contact skills compared to another player we’ll call Mr. Contact. Cronenworth was a little better than Mr. Contact at hitting the ball the other way (30.8% to 24.3%). Cronenworth made contact 85% of the time when he swung compared to 84% for Mr. Contact. Cronenworth hit 4 HR and stole three bases in 54 games last season. Mr. Contact hit 4 HR and stole five bases in 40 games last season. Cronenworth’s ISO, a metric measuring a hitter’s power, was .192. Mr. Contact’s ISO was, yes, you guessed it, .192. Let’s reveal Mr. Contact’s identity. He is none other than 31-year old Miguel Rojas. Would you take Miguel Rojas on your fantasy team? Sure. But I would neither seek him out nor draft him with anything but a late-round pick. Four years from now, when Cronenworth is 31 years old, you’ll have yourself, Miguel Rojas.
Furthermore, Cronenworth will carry the kryptonite of any fantasy manager’s team’s lack of playing time with him. He will be competing with KBO star Ha-Seong Kim for the Padres 2B job. Kim is no sure thing, but his power projects well in the MLB due to his elite bat speed. Kim and Cronenworth are both plus defenders; however, Kim has a better arm. Because of the extreme shifts in today’s game, you need a good, if not great, arm at 2B to throw runners out. The Padres are also talking about shifting Cronenworth to the outfield, but who will he supplant for regular playing time Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, or Wil Myers? Let’s also not forget Padres have Jurickson Profar, who also plays everywhere Cronenworth plays.
I see Cronenworth as a valuable utility man, coming off the bench and occasionally filling in at numerous positions on the field when someone needs a rest or as matchups dictate. Every MLB manager needs someone like that; fantasy owners do not.
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Brett Siegel
Twitter: @basiegel68 / Facebook: basiegel68 / Instagram: basiegel68
Brian Daring
Twitter: @BrianDaring1