Fantasy “Experts” often disagree on players heading into a season. In this new series, the tradition continues as two analysts present their cases for whether a player will ascend to star status or wind up being a disappointment for your fantasy roster. One expert will offer the “pros,” and the other will counter with their “cons.” Once Brett Siegel and Brian Daring are done – hopefully, you (a now more informed fantasy GM) can make a better decision about the player discussed and decide who has won this Player Profile Clash.
Pro – Brett Siegel
I am usually the analyst that gives you all the stats and tells you how a player is poised to do better because numbers do not lie. Today, I am going to take a different tack.
I still maintain numbers tell a story, but there has to be context. The 2020 shortened season impacted baseball in ways we have never seen. The sample size was small that there were extremes – both excellent and abysmal. Kyle Schwarber was the latter. Last year, Schwarber ended the season with a batting slump – and it was cringeworthy. In a 60 game season, the 27-year-old left-hander finished his final 23 games with a .101 batting average and 21 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. A lot of major-league hitters suffer slumps during their seasons. Usually, hitters can work their way out of the slump because the season is a long grind with plenty of time to course-correct. This opportunity never presented itself last year for the Cubs left-fielder as the season came to a quick end.
A new year means a fresh start. The Cubs released Schwarber, and he signed with the Nationals. A lot of good is going to come from this. Firstly, Nationals park is left-handed power-friendly; ask Bryce Harper or Adam Dunn. Schwarber’s projected to bat near the top of the order. Hitting behind Trea Turner will force Schwarber to be more patient at the plate and look for better pitches. The top end of the lineup will provide more opportunities to score runs and collect RBIs. Change of scenery, attitude, and the new coaching staff will energize the struggling hard-hitting slugger.
As soon as he signed with the Nationals in January, team hitting coach Kevin Long began working with Schwarber to identify why his hit production declined. His batted balls have been shifting from long balls to ground balls. The analysis revealed his batting stance had progressed from a squat to an upright position over time. Changes are on the horizon. The squatty stance is back, and the expectation is that Schwarber will have more reach to the lower half of the strike zone (which was his Achilles heel in 2020) and provide him more controlled power to hit away from defensive shifts yet still drive the ball with authority.
Schwarber is at the top of my bounce-back candidate list this year, and I predict he will have a stat line of .232-83-34-77-4 and an OBA of .335. For comparison, I have Schwarber sandwiched between Clint Frazier and Tommy Pham in projected total points scoring for left fielders – two players I doubt you would question about putting on your roster.
Con – Brian Daring
The left-handed power hitter has held a special place in baseball history. Whether it be Babe Ruth’s 60 home runs, Ted Williams’s .406 batting average, or Roger Maris’s 61 home runs, they have spawned many an innovation by the opposition. The latest attempt to thwart them has been the proliferation of extreme defensive shifts to the right. Shifts have lowered the batting average of these left-handed free swingers, but of course, they can still hit the ball over the fence, making any shift moot.
Kyle Schwarber can hit the ball over the fence. He hit 94 home runs from 2017 to 2019. Last year, he was in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage. I get it – he can hit the ball hard. The problem is he doesn’t hit it VERY OFTEN.
From 2019 to 2020, his K% rose from 25.6 to 29.5%. His O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) increased from 26.4 to 29.8%. His Chase% rose from 23.6 to 27.6%. But perhaps most alarming was the fact that his Ground Ball% rose from 38% to an astounding 50.8%. This could be a by-product of not making solid enough contact and getting off balance at the plate resulting in a drastic launch angle decrease from 15.5 degrees in 2019 to 8.8 degrees in 2020. Or perhaps it was a by-product of trying to make some adjustments at the plate. If so, you have to ask yourself why he tried to make adjustments or why he tried to change his launch angle. Either way, even when Schwarber made contact, he made hard contact but where hit on the ground more than half the time! When you do that, you really can’t foil those opposition shifts by hitting the ball over the fence. He also pulled the ball 49.6% of the time last year. Accordingly, he faced a shift 81.6% of the time. He’s playing right into their hands.
What did all this mean? A batting average of .188, a wRC+ of 91, and a slugging percentage–typically the redeeming quality of the free-swinging left-handed hitter–only in the 62nd percentile. Unfortunately for the Left-Handed Power Hitters Club, for every Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Roger Maris, there’s a Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, and Chris Davis.
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Brett Siegel
Twitter: @basiegel68 / Facebook: basiegel68 / Instagram: basiegel68
Brian Daring
Twitter: @BrianDaring1