QB Must Starts
Carson Wentz, PHI
Washington ranked 31st last year in both pass TDs allowed (2.3 per game over nine games) and fantasy points allowed versus opposing QBs (during the previous four games). Ron Rivera cannot turn that defense around overnight.
Cam Newton, NEP
Without a preseason, nobody knows what to expect from Newton and the Patriots offense. We do know that over the last nine games last season, the Dolphins were in the bottom third of the NFL in allowing Passing TDs, Yards, and Attempts. The Patriots offense will continue to exploit those weaknesses.
Kyler Murray, ARZ
San Francisco was supremely better versus the Run last year and allowed an average of 26/38 att/comp and 250 yards to opposing QBs over the previous 4 games in 2019. Expect better numbers this week as Murray will likely be playing from behind and throwing often.
Gardner Minshew, JAX
Wha, who, what? Yes, the Offense in Jacksonville is a mess this year, but is it a bigger mess than the Colts secondary last year that ranked 25th (over last nine games) in allowing Passing TDs, Yards, and Attempts? Jaguars are a touchdown plus underdog and should be throwing deep and often late in the game.
QB Must Sit
Sam Darnold, NYJ
Gase has never proven (as a Head Coach) to have an explosive offense, and the Bills are probably a Top 3 defense against the pass this year. Nothing about this matchup says Darnold will succeed.
Joe Burrow, CIN
Let’s begin with Burrow has yet to see NFL game speed or take a hit from an opposing NFL caliber player. Add to that, and the Chargers pass defense was either 2nd or 3rd over the last nine games in 2019, allowing averages of 31 attempts, 198 yards, and just 1 TD to their QB opponents.
Matt Stafford, DET
With a huge question mark at RB behind Stafford, the ordinarily good QB will likely throw a lot. The 2019 Bears were exceptionally good over the last half of the year versus the pass in allowing opposing QBs less than 20 completions and under 230 yards passing.
RB Must Start
Dalvin Cook, MIN
Vikings are favored, and the Packers were horrible versus the Run last year. Expect 25-30 carries for Cook. Last year Cook gained 154 yards in just 20 carries in his lone appearance versus Green Bay. Down the stretch, the Packers allowed opposing runners an average of 110 yards and 1 TD.
Aaron Jones, GBP
If you can believe it, the Vikings run defense was worse than the Packers last year. In two games against Minnesota, Jones’ lines were as follows: 23-116-1 and 23-154-2. Vikings (during the previous four games in 2019) allowed averages of 28-138-1.5. Expect much of the same this week.
Josh Jacobs, LVR
Carolina was dead last in Rushing Defense last year (in the previous nine games), allowing opponents an average of 139 yards and 2 TDs (and they were even worse in the previous four games). The Panthers coaching staff cannot coach up their players that quick without a preseason. Expect Jacobs to get at least 125 yards and a touchdown.
RB Must Sit
Kenyon Drake, ARZ
For all the reasons K. Murray is a must-start (see above), Drake and his Questionable foot must sit for this week from a fantasy perspective. Drake is expected to start but has yet to take the practice field with less than a week before game time.
Jordan Howard, MIA
Dolphins have a crowded backfield, and Howard is sitting atop the depth chart. No matter who Miami hands the ball to, New England yielded just 0.2 Rushing TDs/game average to opponents over the last nine games in 2019. Being in a committee will not aid Howard in being successful on Sunday.
Devin Singletary, BUF
The Jets Run Defense was 1st last year allowing only 59 yards/game in the previous 9 games. Singletary has been plagued with fumble-itis in camp, and Zack Moss is chomping at the bit for a chance to prove he can play. Singletary will have a short leash against a defense that does not budge.
WR Must Start
Michael Thomas, NOS
Davante Adams, GBP
Chris Godwin, TBB
All are three of the top WRs heading into 2020 and will all be playing the bottom tier Pass Defenses. There are no surprises here and do not try to be cute. Three WRs not at the top who have extremely favorable matchups this week include:
Allen Robinson, CHI
Stefon Diggs, BUF
DJ Chark, JAX
WR Must Sit
Michael Pittman, IND
Having won the battle for WR2 with the Colts, Pittman will be spending most of the game adjusting to NFL game speed and coverage from a team that ranked in the Top 10 last year in Pass Defense over the previous 9 games in 2019. Pittman will be a good fantasy player, just not week one.
Preston Williams, MIA
There are a lot of big fantasy expectations for Wilson in 2020. Unfortunately, Preston will be facing a Top 5 Pass Defense from 2019. Granted, the Patriots are missing many faces from that team last year, but the Belichick philosophy is alive and healthy. Week one is not the breakout week for Wilson.
TE Must Start
George Kittle, SF
Seems obvious, but Arizona was arguably the worst defense against TEs last season.
Zach Ertz, PHI
Dallas Goedert, PHI
See above (Carson Wentz) about how bad the Washington pass defense is; These two TEs will gobble up most of the receiving targets. Both ought to finish in the Top 10 at their position for the week.
Mike Gesicki, MIA
The only glaring hole in the Patriots Pass Defense last year was covering TEs, and their massive personnel turnover will not help that situation. Miami will likely be behind in this contest, and Gesicki will be the beneficiary of garbage time fantasy points.
TE Must Sit
Dawson Knox, BUF
The Jets were particularly stingy versus opposing TEs in 2019, allowing an average of 4-47-0 over their last four games and routinely were considered Top 10 versus the position.
Tyler Eifert, JAX
Because the Colts secondary is so bad (and their LBs are so good in TE coverage), Eifert will be the man left out when Minshew throws up gaudy garbage time numbers throwing deep to his WRs.
Jace Sternberger, GB
Another rookie not accustomed to game speed NFL coverage, Sternberger will likely be very frustrated by a Vikings defense that only allowed 1 TD over the last nine games in 2019 and kept their opposing TEs to just 25 yds/gm over the same period.
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