I took some criticism last week for listing prominent players at certain positions. As a result, I will avoid listing Must Start players that are considered Top Tier by position and avoid fringe starters in my Must Sit players. Hopefully, my Must Start/Sit players moving forward will look more like Hot Takes with confidence.
A word about QBs for Week Two: in making this week’s rankings and projections, there is very little difference between QB2 and QB32. In fact, in a standard scoring system, I calculated only an 8.5 point difference between these 31 QBs from top to bottom (Only Lamar Jackson is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack). Here are two QBs that standout as Must Start/Sit and why:
QB Must Starts
Cam Newton, NEP
The second week in a row listing Newton as a Must Start. New England is a four-point underdog, and the Patriots QB ought to exploit a Seattle Secondary while playing catch-up, that was torched by Matt Ryan for 450 yards last week. The threat of Newton running will help keep the Seahawks defense honest, preventing them from loading up on defenders in the Secondary.
QB Must Sit
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA
Injuries to the Dolphins’ WR corp is a likely concern this week against an already stingy Buffalo Secondary. Bills are 4th best in the league against opposing QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed. Buffalo typically allows opposing QBs to average 225 passing yards/game; there are no silver linings to Fitzpatrick having any success this week.
RB Must Start
Austin Ekeler, LAC
Chiefs failed the eye test trying to contain Houston RBs last Thursday night. This is the week Ekeler personally bounces back and finds himself being the target of screen passes (to slow the Kansas City pass rushers) and open field check downs. Expect more than 100 combined yards and a TD this week.
Joe Mixon, CIN
The key to Mixon’s success will be which Browns rush defense shows up this week (the one that held Ravens RBs to under 60 yards or the one that permitted opposing RBs to average more than 100 yards and a TD down the stretch last year). Mixon torched Cleveland in their previous two meetings with lines of 23-146-1 and 26-162-2. Expect this week to mirror last year’s performances. Till the Browns prove they can stop Mixon, he is a Must Start.
RB Must Sit
Jordan Howard, MIA
I correctly placed Howard as a Must Sit last week and do so again with a high degree of certainty. It is sad when, as an RB1, there are 8 second and third-string running backs rated above Howard for the week. The Bills are Top 10 versus RB1s in fantasy points allowed and typically limit those RBs to less than 70 yards per game. The Dolphins also gave more carries than expected last week to Gaskins and Brieda. Howard may turn it around, but it will not be this week.
Melvin Gordon III, DEN
The Steelers defensive front seven is stout and limited Saquon Barkley to 6 yards on 15 carries. The Broncos are road dogs this week, and that likely means fewer opportunities for Gordon on the ground (even with Phillip Lindsay possibly out with an injury). Also of concern is that Gordon continues to fumble the ball (5 fumbles in his last 13 games). No predictive metrics are suggesting Gordon will do well this week.
WR Must Start
Stefon Diggs, BUF
Diggs caught 8 of 9 targets in his Bills debut and faces a Miami Secondary that ranks 29th versus outside receivers and 22nd against slot receivers. It will not matter where Diggs lines up; he should see great success. Buffalo has enough offensive weapons that it will be difficult to double team Diggs. My projected stat line is 7-88-1.
Julian Edelman, NEP
From a fantasy perspective, Edelman is a Must Start along with his QB Newton (see his write up above for more information). The Seahawks are a Bottom 3 Defensive Secondary against opposing WRs. There was not a lot of volume or targets for Edelman last week. With the Patriots likely playing from behind this week in Seattle, the game script projects double-digit targets for him.
T.Y. Hilton, IND
The Colts wideout should succeed against a defense that allows the second-most fantasy points in the league to a given team’s WR1. The Vikings could not contain Davonte Adams last week and likely will not stop Hilton this week. Now that Hilton and Rivers have a game under their belt together, there should be more trust and less rust this week.
WR Must Sit
Sammy Watkins, KC
Watkins is facing a Chargers Secondary that is Top 5 versus opposing outside and slot receivers. The Chiefs offense may be high octane, but their success this week will come from their RBs and TEs. The last three times Watkins faced the Chargers, he accumulated only 21, 26, and 8 yards, respectively, in Chiefs’ victories.
D.K. Metcalf, SEA
A favored Seahawk team at home relies on the run and passes 10% less in those games. Patriots are a Top 5 Defensive Secondary that typically only allows opposing WRs (combined) to gain 140 yards on 11 receptions on average. Expect Locket to accumulate most of those stats on the outside while Metcalf struggles on crossing routes.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
For all the reasons Mixon ought to succeed (see above), Boyd should likely struggle. In his last two appearances versus the Browns, Boyd caught five passes in each contest for 75 and 59 yards. Cleveland was also 2nd best in the league last year in allowing TDs to opposing WRs.
TE Must Start
Hunter Henry, LAC
Henry ought to be the beneficiary of many garbage time stats versus a Chiefs defense that is suspect over the middle and down the interior seams. In two losses to Kansas City last year, the Los Angeles TE scored 12.9 and 15.2 fantasy points.
TE Must Sit
Jack Doyle, IND
Colt teammate Hilton is a Must Start because the Vikings cannot contain speed or outside receivers. Minnesota is exceptional at is shutting down opposing TE1s by allowing them a paltry average of 3.52 fantasy points over the last five games. Be very surprised if Doyle has more than 35 yards this week.
Connect with me on Social Media!
Twitter: @basiegel68 / Facebook: basiegel68 / Instagram: basiegel68