A word about my Must Start/Sit selections: I try to avoid listing Must Start players that are obvious plays and avoid deep depth chart players in my Must Sit selections. I primarily consider matchups that are exploitable on either side of the ball, and in essence, I offer Hot Takes with statistically backed confidence.
QB Must Start
Drew Brees, NOS
A lot of people are down on the Saints signal-caller, saying he has lost arm strength and struggling without his main receiving target. The future Hall of Famer ought to shine this week. Detroit is ranked 24th in allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs. Expect at least 25 completions, 275+ yards, and 2 touchdowns.
QB Must Sit
Phillip Rivers, IND
The Colts QB has struggled in a new offense, and the Bears pass defense is flourishing. Chicago is ranked 2nd in the league at denying opposing QBs fantasy points. Vegas has Indianapolis as a three-point favorite, which also suggests a run-heavy game script. I have Rivers as the lowest-ranked QB among the 32 projected starters (yes, even lower than Brett Rypien).
RB Must Start
Kenyan Drake, ARZ
The Cardinals RB has been a bit of a fantasy slump through the first three weeks of the season and is now facing a Carolina rush defense ranked dead last versus the run. The Panthers have allowed every starting RB1 at least 30 fantasy points this year. On paper, this is a no-brainer start. If Drake fails, then his slump will be an indictment on his ability henceforth.
Devin Singletary, BUF
I listed Singletary as a Must Start last week, and despite a season-high for total yards, the elusive Bills RB failed to find the endzone or crack the Top 20 at his position. The Raiders are giving up more than 175 Rushing/Receiving yards to opposing RBs, and Singletary ought to see the majority of those yards allowed. Additionally, Las Vegas is ranked 30th in allowing rushing touchdowns to opponents. I don’t think a 20 point fantasy day is a reach.
RB Must Sit
Antonio Gibson, WAS
The Washington RB is still learning his position. This week he will learn that Baltimore will look more like the 2nd ranked stout front seven that shut down Nick Chubb and David Johnson and not the one that let CEH exploit their constant over pursuit on Monday Night. Washington is a 13 point underdog that will limit Gibson’s touches out of the backfield too.
Jerick McKinnon, SF
The 49ers backfield is banged up, and this includes McKinnon. The San Fransisco RB is dealing with bruised ribs, but he should still get more than 65% of the team’s snaps. McKinnon is facing an Eagles run defense that has not permitted an opposing RB1 more than 8.5 fantasy points in any contest this year.
WR Must Start
Cooper Kupp, LAR
This might be a trap game for Kupp because he will be lining up in the slot against one of the worst cornerbacks currently in the NFL in Darnay Holmes (ranked 96th of 128 starters by Pro Football Focus). The Rams WR has been targeted at least 5 times in each game this season, and the Giants secondary ought to be exposed in a bad way.
DeVante Parker, MIA
The Dolphins face a secondary that has failed to contain any passing offense this year. Parker will be lining up against Shaquille Griffen (ranked 79th of 128 by Pro Football Focus). This is the week the Miami WR finally breaks the century mark in yards. I will be shocked if Parker finishes the week with less than 20 fantasy points.
D.J. Moore, CAR
The Panthers are a 4 point underdog, which suggests a passing garbage time game script. The Carolina WR has a fantastic matchup against underperforming cornerbacks (Dre Kirkpatrick & Patrick Peterson). Arizona’s pass defense has a whole, can be stingy but tends to give up big plays, and that is something Moore often takes advantage of. I expect Moore to finish as a Top 15 WR for the week.
WR Must Sit
Steven Sims, Jr., WAS
Most fantasy metrics suggest a successful passing day for the Washington offense. The “Football Team” is a 13 point underdog, and the Ravens are stout against the run. Unfortunately, for Sims (who is listed as WR2 on the official depth chart), his teammate Terry McLaurin on the opposite side, ought to draw the best matchup versus Jimmy Smith. Sims will have to deal with Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphries and fend off the loss of snaps to Inman and Wright. Only consider playing Sims if you think he is going to return a kick for a touchdown.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GBP
MVS lines up on the right side 48% of the time this year, which means he will face off with a very good (6th ranked by PFF) Darqueze Dennard most of the game. Anything more than 6 fantasy points for the Packers wideout will be an achievement.
Adam Humphries, TEN
The Titans are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak at the time of this writing, and the fate of their game this week is still being decided. If they play, Tennessee will have gone the week without practice and will face a stingy Steeler pass defense. Humphries ought to be covered by PFF’s 23rd ranked defender Mike Hilton. The Titans would do better to hope for this game to be rescheduled later in the year.
TE Must Start
Mike Gesicki, MIA
Surprisingly, I have listed the Dolphins TE here because of his 19 targets so far this year and not because he faces the Seahawks. Despite being poor against WRs, Seattle is outstanding (as a team) against opposing Tight Ends and is ranked 5th best overall. However, Miami is a 7 point underdog and should be throwing often in multiple WR sets, and this leaves a poor pass covering LB K.J. Wright to deal with Gesicki.
TE Must Sit
Ian Thomas, CAR
Arizona is historically bad against Tight Ends (when they line up inline or split wide). Unfortunately, the Carolina TE lines up in the slot 56% of his snaps, and that means he is going to draw primary coverage from Safety Chris Banjo, who is the 2nd best DB in the NFL at limiting fantasy points to TEs.
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