The 2020 NFL Draft is in the books! Like most years, many picks left us scratching our heads. Then, there were those great value picks that you wish your team would have made. Fantasy stocks have both exploded as well as plummeted. Now the real fun begins with analyzing all landing spots and fantasy outlooks of the players drafted. I will look at the skill position players round by round and provide my opinions. After each round is complete, I will do a fantasy rookie mock draft. Let’s dive into round one and get the party started.
1.12 Henry Ruggs III, WR Las Vegas Raiders
After the first ten picks of the draft were pretty chalky, the Raiders found themselves on the clock at pick 11. Most people had them pegged to take a wide receiver, and since none were selected yet, they had their pick of the bunch. With the first surprise of the draft, they passed on the consensus top 2 wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy to select Henry Ruggs out of Alabama. Over the last ten years, Alabama wide receivers have had some significant success in the NFL, with Calvin Ridley in 2018, Amari Cooper in 2015, and Julio Jones in 2011. It’s safe to say Nick Saban knows how to scout wide receiver talent. The Raiders loved Rugg’s speed and explosiveness, which is what set him apart from Lamb and Jeudy in their eyes. He is as competitive and hungry as they come, which are intangible traits everyone loves, especially at the wide receiver position. The Raiders’ top fantasy wide receiver last year was Tyrell Williams. His skill set is limited, so this is an excellent opportunity for Ruggs as he could legit step in as the teams’ number one wide receiver from the beginning. As we saw with Brandon Jacobs last year, the Raiders are certainly not scared to give a rookie a considerable workload that leads to fantasy dominance. His only main threat for targets will be Darren Waller, who was an absolute monster at the tight end position last year. I am a bigger fan than most of Derek Carr. He is certainly not elite but doesn’t get enough credit for what he can do. He will be able to get the ball to Ruggs early and often.
1.15 Jerry Jeudy, WR Denver Broncos
The landing spot is crucial for a player’s fantasy stock. I would have loved to see Jeudy go to the Raiders, where he would have had the ability to step in from day one and be the number one wide receiver on the team. Instead, he was passed on by the Raiders and selected by the Denver Broncos. There is no doubt he will start alongside fellow young stud wide receiver Courtland Sutton. He will defer targets to Sutton and is the second receiving option in an inferior passing attack behind a raw, developing quarterback in Drew Lock. The addition of Melvin Gordon in a now crowded backfield may have the Broncos headed in the direction of running the ball, playing defense and taking shots in the play-action game. All of these will help to take some pressure off of Drew Lock. I certainly don’t want to be all negative because Jeudy may very well end up being the best wide receiver in this class long term. He can take the top off of any defense, and his playmaking ability with the ball in his hands allows him to take any short pass to the house. If Lock takes a step forward, Jeudy could have an impact immediately, but want to caution you to be patient with your shares of Jeudy.
1.17 CeeDee Lamb, WR Dallas Cowboys
I looked at so many mocks that I lost count, and none of them had Lamb being on the board for the Cowboys pick at 17. Lamb falls into one of the prolific offenses in the league led by Dak Prescott. His upside may be capped in the beginning by the presence of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. The Cowboys also love to run the ball and are paying Ezekiel Elliot a lot of money, so he will no doubt continue to see a ton of touches as well. He has also expanded his role in the passing game, which translates to fewer targets available for the wideouts. On the bright side, Randall Cobb is no longer on the team, and the Cowboys run a majority of their offensive sets with three wide receivers, and that should remain the same. Defenses will not be able to double team Lamb so he will get his opportunities to make plays. If Cooper or Gallup succumb to an injury, the sky is the limit for Lamb. The Cowboys also have glaring holes all over the defense, so they should be in a lot of shootouts, which bodes well for Lamb and all the other Dallas offensive players.
1.21 Jalen Reagor, WR Philadelphia Eagles
As an Eagles fan, I would be lying if I didn’t say I hated this pick. However, it didn’t have anything to do with Reagor as a player; it was just that the value wasn’t there, taking him with the 21st pick. I believe they could have traded back and still gotten him and acquired more draft capital in the process. But that is all water under the bridge now. Carson Wentz gets a legit deep threat to eventually replace Desean Jackson or fill in immediately for the oft-injured Desean. Another wildcard in the next few months is the uncertainty surrounding Alshon Jeffery. There has been a lot of speculation surrounding the Eagles trading Jeffery. It just comes down to finding a trade partner willing to take on his contract. If the Eagles can move on from Jeffery, it will free up a lot of targets and open a significant opportunity to start on this team for Reagor. Yet another situation where patience may be needed for Reagor to reach his true potential. He is paired with one of the better young starting quarterbacks in the league in Carson Wentz and will eventually get his chance to shine. It just may not be this season.
1.22 Justin Jefferson, WR Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson was the guy I wanted the Eagles to take at 21. Unfortunately, we passed, and he fell into the laps of the Vikings. I think this is the safest pick you can make in your rookie dynasty draft. Out of all the first-round players, I believe he has the highest floor of any player. Stefon Diggs, being traded to Buffalo, left a lot of targets up for grabs, and there is nobody behind him that he will have any trouble beating out for those targets. It is a run-first offense, but all of their goals have funneled to Thielen and Diggs in the past. I think we will be saying that same thing about Thielen and Jefferson this season. He may not be the big play burner that Diggs was, but he will be a substantial red-zone weapon for Kirk Cousins. Thielen is the guy you’ll want between the 20s as he will see significant targets, but when it comes to the red zone, I think Jefferson will be the early and often target, resulting in a lot of touchdowns.
1.25 Brandon Aiyuk, WR San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk finds himself on a team coached by one of the best offensive minds and schemers in the game in Kyle Shanahan. With the departure of Emmanuel Sanders to the Saints and the overwhelming underachievement from Dante Pettis, there is an opportunity for Aiyuk to come in and start right away. However, in an offense that loves to run the ball, has two target hogs in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, the upside for Aiyuk will be limited this season. He will no doubt have some monster weeks as he is a big-play threat, and the 49ers’ ability to run the ball will open up many opportunities for Aiyuk to get behind the defense. He is a great sleeper pick in best-ball formats. However, I don’t see much week-to-week value here with the lack of volume in the passing game and being the clear third option in the passing game behind Kittle and Samuel.
1.32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Kansas City Chiefs
Finally, with the 32nd and final pick in the first round, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs selected Clyde Edwards Helaire, and his fantasy stock immediately exploded. He has all the skills to be a premier three-down back in the NFL, and he landed on the best offense in football. Edwards is a Damien Williams injury away from being a monster RB1 and having a Kareem Hunt 2018 type break out season. Damien Williams is as unproven as they come, so even if it is not injury-related, I think Helaire’s talent will win out, and he takes over the job sooner rather than later. His receiving ability is one of the aspects of his game that gets me excited about his landing spot. He can be a monster in the screen game, and nobody is better at scheming screenplays than Andy Reid. Helaire is just one more toy for Patrick Mahomes to exploit defenses with as if he needed any more help. Coincidentally, drafting Edwards also probably puts an end to all the sleeper hype for Darwin Thompson.
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