The old saying goes, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” The same can be said, looking at the 2020 Dynasty FFL rookie class. Players like Joe Burrow, CeeDee Lamb, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are going to have a significant impact on both their teams and in fantasy football for 2020 and beyond. Their opportunity is obvious. Dynasty leagues are won, even if it is in a season or three down the road, by finding those players whose opportunity is not visible, but seeing their entire story and finding the appropriate times to jump in and pick them.
I do not like to call these players “sleepers.” These are players that have a path to playing time, much like a Gardner Minshew or Darius Slayton last year, and the surrounding cast to make a case for selection, even if it is a later round rookie dart.
If you are banking on 2nd or 3rd round rookies to win your dynasty league this year, you probably will be drafting early enough in 2021 to make up for it. But these players can supplement your roster, especially during bye weeks or if injuries pop-up like they always do. And remember, these are dynasty picks. Do not give up on them because they are not panning out in 2020. Keep them on a long leash, especially if you have the roster space.
Jacob Eason, QB, Indianapolis Colts
I am guessing we all know the story of Jacob Eason. 5-star recruit. 6-6, 231 lbs., rocket arm. Has all the measurables that big schools drool over. So, he goes to the SEC to play in Georgia. While there, Kirby Smart recruits Jake Fromm and Josh Fields, forcing Eason to decide whether he wants to stay and probably never play, or take a year off and find a school to show off his talents. Eason decided to go back to his home state of Washington and play for the Huskies. While there, he threw for over 3k yards, 23 TDs, and 8 INTs in 2019, putting him on many draft lists in the 2nd or 3rd tier of QBs, behind Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love, and on the same level as Jalen Hurts and the afore-mentioned Jake Fromm. Here is where opportunity meets preparation for someone like Eason. I am not sure there is a better landing spot for him other than the Indianapolis Colts. Ahead of him in the depth chart is Philip Rivers, who will turn 39 next seasons. While recent comments from Colts Head Coach Frank Reich regarding Rivers “still having a few years left in him,” the fact of the matter is the Colts signed him to a 1-year deal, and he is not getting younger. Eason will have the opportunity to learn from a future Hall of Famer (HOFer) while having no pressure to perform. Next, you look at the Colts supporting cast. 2-3 years ago, the Colts had one of the worst offensive lines in the game, and Andrew Luck’s injury history is evidence of that. During the 2018 draft, the Colts focused heavily on fixing that issue by drafting Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. The WR corps is highlighted by T.Y. Hilton, who is 30 years old and entering his 9th season. 2019 was his worst season by far, mostly since that he was injured and only played ten games. Before last season, Hilton had five seasons in which he had 75 receptions and 1000 yards. In 8 seasons, he had 45 TDs and considering a few of those seasons, and his QBs were Jim Sorgi and Jacoby Brissett; those are not awful numbers.
The Colts WR corps is rounded out by Zach Pascal, who emerged last season, and 2nd round selection Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman provides the Colts a big-bodied WR option to go along with the more diminutive Hilton and Pascal. Eric Ebron is no longer on the Colts roster (and neither are his drops), but Jack Doyle has proved in the past that he can be a capable TE target when healthy. In the backfield, the Colts have some great, young depth, starting with 2nd rounder Jonathan Taylor, who figures to be the featured back for the foreseeable future. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines round out the backfield. All these facts point towards Jacob Eason holding the clipboard in 2020, learning from one of the best offensive coaches in the game, and one of the best QBs in the game in the last 20 years. I believe Eason is worth a 3rd round pick in a 12-team dynasty draft this season.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Joshua Kelley had a somewhat decent career at UCLA, where he had two seasons of over 1k yards while hitting pay dirt 12 times each season. UCLA has not had a lot of success since genius Chip Kelly arrived, but the numbers Kelley put up garnered him some draft attention. The Chargers liked him enough to take him in the 4th round. Now, the RB situation in LA is not that great for the rookie. Ahead of him is Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, who both have significant upside now that Melvin Gordon is a Denver Bronco. As a side note, I am a big Austin Ekeler fan this season. They gave him decent money, and while Gordon was making bad decisions last season, Ekeler capitalized and put up exceptionally good numbers last season. Justin Jackson is a sneaky RB selection as well. In 2019, Jackson had a nice 6.9 YPC, though a small sample size (29 carries), averaging almost 7 yards a carry is legit. However, this is about Kelley and where to draft him. Kelley is not going to see a ton of carries in 2020. His pedigree and tools around him are going to help down the road, however. I believe the Chargers could do some work on their OL, especially since they invested an early 1st rounder in QB Justin Herbert. Other than the OL, there are weapons galore on this roster, especially on the perimeter with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. All of this means that spending a 3rd round flyer draft pick on Kelley could reward you in future dynasty FFL seasons.
Quintez Cephus, WR, Detroit Lions
As I look at rookies before the draft, I try not to compare them to historical or current NFL players. I find it is not fair to either the rookie or the NFL vet. But for articles like this, it tends to be helpful to give readers someone to compare a player they probably have not seen before. With regards to Quintez Cephus, I see a lot of similarities to long-time NFL WR Anquan Boldin. Boldin was a 2nd round pick from FSU, who ended up being a great complementary WR to HOFer Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin had a great career, coming hot out of the gate in his rookie season with 101 receptions, nearly 1400 yards, and 8 TDs. Boldin ended up having a 14-year career, winning a Super Bowl ring with the Ravens, a game in which he had six receptions, 104 yards, and a TD. Now do not get me wrong, I am not saying Cephus has ahead of him a 14-year career and a Super Bowl win. But there is potential there to be a reliable NFL WR. At Wisconsin, in a run-heavy offense scheme, Cephus had a final season where he had 59 receptions for a total of 901 yards and 7 TDs. Granted, Cephus had to sit-out 2018 due to some off-field issues, but the Lions did their homework and made him their 5th round selection. The WR corps around him is Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola ahead of him, but Jones and Amendola are both on the wrong side of 30. Cephus will get a chance to win the 4th WR spot on the Lions out of training camp, and given the fact that he’s got an underrated Matthew Stafford as his QB, I like the idea of spending a 3rd round selection on the rookie WR from Wisconsin.
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