In a recent forum discussion (after I labeled Jonathan Villar a ‘bust’ in a DSE article based on Total Points Scoring), a highly respected and successful fantasy owner said, “30 steals makes Villar Top 100 no matter what else he does”. My gut opposed this notion on the surface without any statistical research. Therefore, let us consider the facts and statistics to get a proper analysis.
I know the owner quoted above never intended their statement to be treated literally. But it seems to be a fun place to start and might offer an interesting statistical baseline. DSE Total Points Scoring awards four points for a stolen base and subtracts the same amount of points for a player caught stealing. Last year, Villar scored 689.75 fantasy points, and that made him the 42nd best player in DSE fantasy baseball, all the while stealing 40 bases with nine caught stealing attempts. If we take Villar’s 31 net steals and forget “what else he does,” he scores 124 fantasy points making him the 620th best player in baseball for the 2019 campaign. This stolen base only ranking puts Villar between hitters Ty France and Nick Solak on the season, which is nonetheless impressive, but not anywhere near Top 100. Not too mention just how bad France and Solak become in comparison in a season-long look.
However, the question remains: do 30 steals make a player Top 100? Eight players stole 30 bases or more in 2019. Those players (with their SB/CS totals in parenthesis) are:
Mallex Smith (46/9)
Adalberto Mondesi (43/7)
Jonathan Villar (40/9)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (37/9)
Trea Turner (35/5)
Elvis Andrus (31/8)
Christian Yelich (30/2)
Jarrod Dyson (30/4)
Five of the above (Villar, Acuna, Turner, Andrus, and Yelich) were indeed Top 100 players. Smith, Mondesi, and Dyson were well outside the Top 100 as they finished 205th, 159th, and 257th, respectively.
Interesting to note that the two best base stealers last year ended up outside the Top 150. Stealing 30 bases does not guarantee a player to be a Top 100 value. In truth, stealing 40 bases still does not warrant the desired fantasy valuation. Dyson’s speed is so valuable in real life (please note sarcasm here); as of this writing, he is an unsigned free agent just a week before players begin to report to 2020 Spring Training.
Let us now evaluate the value of stolen bases for the players who stole 30 bases and did end up Top 100. There are five players to consider here, as noted above. Four of the five still would have finished in the Top 100 even if we removed all of their SB and CS points (plus or minus). Only Andrus dropped out from 90th to 146th. Stolen bases had a negligible statistical impact on the other four players’ values, given their overall rank among the entire field of players for the year.
The four players that would have remained in the Top 100, if they had never even attempted to steal a base in 2019 were:
4) Yelich – Adjusted to 15th overall
15) Acuna – Adjusted to 48th overall
42) Villar – Adjusted to 90th overall
52) Turner – Adjusted to 99th overall
I believe the evidence suggests that “30 steals make (someone a) Top 100 player, no matter what else he does” to be statistically incorrect. The truth is: players who are capable of stealing 30 bases each year are Top 100 value even without stolen bases factoring into their worth.
Net stolen bases do boost a player’s point total and their value without a doubt. Are Stolen bases a statistic you should be overly concerned with when evaluating players in a Total Points scoring format? No. Chasing Steals and making net stolen bases a factor in your draft day strategy is a colossal waste of time.
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