Some baseball players are just unlucky – getting robbed of hits because of good defense, serving in a platoon, or being a bench player waiting for a chance to play on an everyday basis. A few unlucky players lack fantasy recognition but have the potential to be breakout candidates if they get lucky at the plate and get more at-bats (in part due to roster depth changes or a move to a new team).
Can good or bad luck be measured in baseball for hitters? Some say ‘Yes,’ and there are a few different measures touted by industry experts. The one I like to use is the relationship between weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA). By comparing the two and examining their difference, one can reasonably evaluate if a player was lucky or unlucky at the plate. I will explain how, but first, let us define both wOBA and xwOBA for those unfamiliar.
I will not bore you with complex mathematical formulas. Just know that wOBA (as defined by MLB) is “a version of the on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base — instead of simply considering whether a player reached base.” MLB goes on to explain xwOBA as a formula using exit velocity, launch angle and, Sprint Speed (only on topped or weakly hit balls). In essence, xwOBA removes defense from the calculus to determine whether or not a batted ball would have been a hit.
A player who has a higher wOBA than xOBA is likely getting lucky, or at the very least, over-performing at the plate. However, If a player has a higher xwOBA than wOBA, one can reasonably assume the player under-performing and is unlucky for one reason or another. Young and “unlucky” players whose situations may have prevented them from getting 500 or more plate appearances (PA) in 2019 are my focus. These players have a high likelihood to be better than they were last year, resulting in a breakout or bounce-back season in 2020.
C.J. Cron, 1B, DET
In 2019, Cron led all MLB players (with less than 500 PA) in (negative) differential between wOBA (.325) and xwOBA (.366). Cron, who spent a good portion of the second half of last year on the injured reserve, was let go by the Twins rather than arbitrate his salary. Detroit thought enough of the 30-year-old’s potential to give him a one year deal worth $6.1 million. C.J. Cron’s projection is to be the starting first baseman for the Tigers this upcoming season. Two years ago, as a starter in Tampa Bay, Cron hit 30 HR and was 23% better than the league average hitter, using the weighted Runs Created plus metric (wRC+). If Cron stays healthy and gets 500 or more AB, he could be a sneaky Top 10 fantasy player at the first base position.
Danny Jansen, C, TOR
A superficial scratch at Jansen’s statistics from his rookie campaign would lead someone to think he is a scrub player with stats like these: .207 AVG, .640 OPS, and 68 wRC+. But there are surprising numbers when one digs deeper. The 24-year-old had a Batting Avg of Balls In Play (BABIP) of .230, which is significantly better than his 2019 batting average. Jansen’s xwOBA of .314 was 39 points better than his wOBA.
Additionally, the Blue Jay catcher had a Hard Hit rate 42.4% and a contact rate of 81.3% in his first full season. All these peripheral stats point to the potential for vast improvement at the plate in 2020. With a young and hard-hitting lineup around him in Toronto, expect a breakout season where Jansen can finish the season amongst the Top 15 fantasy catchers.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIA
The Marlins claimed Aguilar off waivers from Tampa Bay and are hoping the 29-year-old first basemen can return to his 2018 All-Star form when he hit 35 HR and drove in 108 RBI. Aguilar was awful in 2019 and only amassed 369 AB between the Brewers and Rays. His stats last year were mostly below league average in almost every category. Yet, Aguilar somehow managed to post an xwOBA of .334, which was 27 points higher than his wOBA and did so while maintaining his ability to spray the ball consistently to all fields. In other words, the Venezuelan was extremely unlucky last year, given that teams rarely played the shift against him (26.8% of his AB). It is my belief Aguilar will win the first base job in Miami, and the increase of ABs will normalize his wOBA, raising his fantasy production. Aguilar is also the ideal player on the Marlins roster to take advantage of the outfield fences which have been moved closer this year.
Jose Martinez, OF/DH, TB
In 2019 Martinez lost his primary role on the Cardinals when the team traded for Paul Goldschmidt. The result was Martinez losing 200 AB from the previous year and having his production become virtually league average (101 wRC+) in 2019. Even during a pedestrian season, Martinez managed to have an xwOBA 20 points higher than his wOBA at .343, and he mashes left-handed pitchers better than most major leaguers over his career (.976 OPS and 160 wRC+). With the recent trade to Tampa, Martinez has an opportunity to DH, play right field, and get more than 500 plate appearances. The increase in workload should propel Martinez to offensive production prominence by year-end.
Yandy Diaz, 3B, TB
Limited to only 307 AB last year due to multiple injuries, Diaz showed raw power potential and is the favorite to become the everyday starter at the hot corner for the Rays. Diaz had an xwOBA of .367 (16 points higher than his wOBA). If Diaz had garnered 500+ PA and maintained that average, he would have cracked the Top 25 best hitters in the league for xwOBA. Diaz is hiding at a position with an overabundance of productive hitters; this has resulted in an ADP of 235. If Diaz gets 500+ PA, he is a dark-horse worth betting on to finish Top 75 in total points scoring league-wide and Top 15 at third base.
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