What is a fantasy baseball bust? For this article, I consider a player a ‘Bust’ whose difference in value (in total points scoring) versus their Average Draft Position (ADP) is so significant that drafting said player would permanently cripple your team before the season was to start.
Just because a player finds themselves on my list doesn’t mean that they are not good or that I don’t like them. Some players on this list are the best player available at their position. What I am saying is that drafting them where most owners are selecting them is a recipe for disaster because you can find a better value in those rounds. In short, let someone else draft these players at their going rate.
A player’s negative attributes and peripheral metrics ought to be a factor in their draft cost. Thereby, I present seven players I feel are draft day busts based on their Top 100 ADP.
Gleyber Torres, NYY, 2B, SS
Fantrax ADP: 36.19; Rotowire ADP: 29
Is Torres a Top 10 player at both 2B and SS? Yes. Is he worth a 2nd round draft pick in total points scoring? No. Let’s begin with the fact that Torres obliterated Orioles pitching last year for 13 HR and a .333 BA in 66 AB, and that regression versus Baltimore is a reasonably sure bet. Torres also lost 25 points off his BABIP from 2018 and ended with a .296 average. His poor 2019 BABIP and pedestrian Average Exit Velocity (89 MPH) are good indicators that Torres will regress this year compared to previous seasons. As of this writing, I have Torres scoring comparable totals to both Mike Moustakas and Marcus Semien (using DSE total points scoring) – who are both 7th round values. I do not believe Torres’ age is worth five rounds of draft value, even in a Dynasty format.
Keston Hiura, MIL, 2B
Fantrax ADP: 51.73; Rotowire ADP: 41
Hiura was a monster at the plate in 2019 in only 314 AB. Hard to argue with his success. However, I believe he is NOT a 2nd or 3rd round value because his peripherals tell a different story. The 23-year-old had a fantastic .420 BABIP in his rookie campaign, but a 30.7% K rate accompanied that number. Something has to give. Why do I think his hitting will decline? Hiura had one of the league’s worst differences in wOBA (.388) versus xwOBA (.360). Although I project Hiura to get 550 AB this season, I have his OPS and wRC+ both at league average.
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY OF
Fantrax ADP: 61.18; Rotowire ADP: 60
Full disclosure: Stanton is my favorite player to watch, and he is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward player this year. Since breaking into the Big Leagues in 2010, Stanton has only had three seasons where he played 150 games or more. Plagued by injuries (mostly from being hit by pitches) makes Stanton one of the most challenging players to project. I have him slated to hit 35 HR in 500 AB over 130 games, but those numbers will come with 175 Ks, and that dramatically diminishes his total point scoring value. I have seen projections from respected publications having him play as little as 75 games and getting less than 250 AB. The other off-putting factor is that the 30-year-old is second on the Yankee depth chart at both corner outfield positions going into spring training, making him the primary DH for the Bronx Bombers. His ADP cannot be justified by a player that can only fill a UTL spot on your roster.
J.T. Realmuto, PHI, C
Fantrax ADP: 63.69; Rotowire ADP: 49
Let’s be clear: Despite being arguably the best catcher in baseball for fantasy production, Realmuto should not be the 3rd or 4th player selected in your start-up league (which is where is ADP has him falling in a 14 team league). The real issue with Realmuto is the fact that he is a catcher, and the difference between him and the 14th best player at that position is minuscule (less than 200 projected total points over the year). A shrewd fantasy owner can make up 3X that amount by value drafting another position player or pitcher in that same proposed ADP range. Additionally, Realmuto has seen his BABIP fall every year since 2016. No one should be drafting a catcher in the first 200 players off the board in a total points league.
Jonathan Villar, MIA, 2B, SS
Fantrax ADP: 67.99; Rotowire ADP: 35
I cannot fathom how on earth Villar is being drafted 35th overall according to Rotowire (unless people are anticipating his expected move to 3B, combined with position eligibility at two other positions to be the equivalent of fantasy gold). However, even the Fantrax ADP is pure folly here. The only plus for Villar is that Miami should continue to give him the green light on the base paths, and he should finish the season stealing between 35 and 40 bases. There are too many downsides to Villar’s game to warrant value at his current ADP. The 28-year-old struggles regularly with plate discipline, hard contact, and ball lift. Villar averages only a 25% fly-ball rate for his career, and his propensity to hit ground balls and line drives will mean he will not be able to take advantage of the outfield fences being moved in at Marlins Park. In a total points scoring system, Villar is not worth a pick in the Top 225.
Victor Robles, WAS, CF
Fantrax ADP: 78.34; Rotowire: 63
Here is the classic case of fantasy value versus real-life value. The 22-year-old rookie had a breakout season with the world champion Nationals and would be a welcome addition to any real-life team in MLB. He is fun to watch and has phenomenal speed in the field and on the base paths. What the young CF does not have is the hitting ability to warrant an ADP in the Top 100 for fantasy baseball. Robles is downright awful in the two most accepted sabermetric stats used to gauge a hitter’s worth with a wOBA of .317 and a wRC+ of 91. For those that might argue that he may turn the corner having gained a year’s experience, I simply point out that his hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was a putrid 24.9%. Doubtful that he learns to hit a baseball with more ferocity than he did last year. Buyer beware on this player that shines brightly to the casual fan.
Gary Sanchez, NYY, C
Fantrax ADP: 88.72; Rotowire ADP: 82
I repeat, for those that glossed over my assessment of Realmuto: no one should be drafting a catcher in the first 200 picks overall in a total points league. Sanchez will produce. I project him to hit 35 HR in 472 AB combining for 160 R+RBI. The problem is not production but rather a fandom and unrealistic expectations. Too many fantasy owners feel his ADP is Top 100 because he has the “potential” to hit 46 HR, 98 R, and 114 RBI based on an extrapolated 162 game average. In reality, 2019 for Sanchez mimicked his 3-year averages in nearly every category (and that was for 105 games and 396 AB). What you got last year is what you will get probably every year – a top 3 catcher that provides virtually no fantasy value unless you draft him after ADP 200. Bottom line: his fantasy value will never meet fantasy owner expectations.
Connect with me on Social Media!
Twitter: @basiegel68 / Facebook: basiegel68 / Instagram: basiegel68