There are many ways in which a manager can construct a lineup. It’s a process that has evolved over the years. Forty years ago, a manager would rely on his gut more than the modern-day manager. Whoever was hot would occupy a key position in the lineup. Regulars would rarely get rested. Speedy table setters who drew a lot of walks and predominantly hit singles would lead off, followed by the patient number two hitter who had no reservations about taking a pitch to allow the leadoff hitter to steal or hitting the ball to the right side of the infield to enable the baserunner to advance. The number three hitter would invariably be the team’s best hitter, followed by the number four and five hitters who possessed the most power in the lineup. They were the hitters most capable of driving home baserunners with extra-base hits. Managers like Gene Mauch plied their small-ball techniques without any outside interference; Earl Weaver sneaked a smoke in the dugout runway while waiting patiently for the three-run homer, and Billy Martin pitched his starters to death, rarely raising his arm to hale a reliever while walking to the mound.
Today managers rely on strict analytical data to construct a lineup, which the front office or analytical department might prescribe. Every day players receive scheduled rest whether they’re hot or not. Power hitters now suddenly find themselves occupying the leadoff spot, especially if they’re proficient at drawing walks and getting on base. Pitchers tend to nibble at the plate when facing a power hitter, so a walk becomes all the more likely. Steals have become an endangered species, so there’s no longer a need for the leadoff hitter to possess any speed. Attempted steals are not favorably supported by analytical data. Now a team’s best hitter usually occupies the number two spot in the lineup to receive more at-bats during a game and the season. The middle of the order may now even consist of table setters should the data prescribe it.
There are also many ways in which a manager can construct a bullpen. Forty years ago, the best relief pitchers often pitched two or three innings, whether taking over for a beleaguered starter or closing the game. There were no middle relievers, bulk relievers, set-up men, or closers. There were just relievers, the second class citizens of the pitching staff. Today managers assign specialized roles to everyone in the bullpen. Who will come into a pitch if the starter needs to be relieved early in the game, who will pitch in the middle of the game, who will throw in the sixth inning, who will throw in the seventh, who will set up the closer, and who will close is scripted before every game starts?
Similarly, a fantasy baseball manager has many ways in which to construct a bullpen.
THE HEAD TO HEAD INITIATIVE
Your bullpen must be built differently in a head to head points league than in a roto league. Invariably, saves will be worth more points than holds in a head to head league. Therefore, when constructing your points league bullpen, stockpile as many closers as possible to fill your RP spots. Don’t bother with middle relievers or set-up men unless the pool of closers has dried up before you can fill all of your RP spots. You don’t want to put yourself in danger of incurring the negative points of losses or blown saves by non-closers in the hope of gaining the minimal point value of a hold. Remember, a blown save can occur at any time in the game, not just at the end. It’s a simple case of risk versus reward. For instance, don’t risk a -10 for a loss or a -5 for a blown save, hoping you can get a +5 for a hold. But if the reward is a +10 for a save, you have a greater level of comfort.
To support this theory, look no further than the top 20 point totals for relievers in 2019. Only six of them were set-up men, and none were in the top ten. Furthermore, the success of those six set-up men who did place in the top 20 can be primarily attributed to wins in relief, which is simply impossible to predict when drafting or acquiring relievers. Relief wins are a product of luck.
THE ROTO INITIATIVE
However, if you are a fan of set-up men, roto is the place for you. Unlike points leagues where saves are worth more than holds, roto leagues place equal value on saves and holds as equivalent categories. Looking at the top 20 rated relievers in roto in 2019, we find 12 set-up men, including 8 in the top 13. More than half of the top 20 relief pitchers in baseball were set-up men. Therefore, when constructing your roto league bullpen, do not place any more importance on elite closers than on elite set-up men. You might want to put MORE priority on the less publicized and less expensive set-up men. No need to expend high draft picks on elite closers when you can draft equally valuable or even more valuable set-up men in the later rounds.
There is a need, however, to target the RIGHT set-up men. This is why you need to know how real baseball managers construct their bullpen. It’s much easier to target set-up men who are scripted to pitch the sixth and seventh innings (just the ones you want to avoid in a points league) because those relievers will be readily available late in a draft or even as a free agent after the season starts. It becomes clear just what the manager’s plan is and where everyone slots into the bullpen hierarchy. Remember, a hold can occur anytime in a game as well, not just the eighth inning. As long as the reliever enters the game with a lead of three or less and holds it, you’ve got yourself a hold no matter when it occurs. There’s more pressure on the eighth-inning set-up man, so blown saves might be more prevalent there than in the sixth or seventh. Target those sixth and seventh inning set-up men who play on good teams, so there will be plenty of leads to protect, and you might very well dominate the holds category.
THE GOLDEN ARM
Forget whether you play in a points league or a roto league. Forget whether the reliever is a closer or a set-up man. Forget whether the reliever plays for a good team or a bad team. Just look for the guys who can throw it up there at 98 and snatch them up!
If you’ve got golden arms in your bullpen, you can let the chips fall where they may. Even if a golden arm is not the closer or set-up man, he may very well be soon. But even if he doesn’t rack up saves or holds, he’s sure to deliver strikeouts. Even someone who is not yet trusted to enter the game with a lead and thus is not eligible for a save or hold will still rack up strikeouts, especially if he’s a middle or bulk reliever and pitches multiple innings. So the golden arm translates to both points league and roto league success.
Of course, you need to target the RIGHT golden arm. Make sure the metrics suggest fantasy-relevant attributes. Look at his BB to K ratio. A high number of strikeouts will be nullified in a points league by an increased number of walks. In a roto league, an increased number of walks will hurt your WHIP. Look for his BB% to be at least half of his K% to ensure an adequate ratio.
Make sure your golden arm misses bats and induces soft contact. Several metrics indicate this skill. Look at soft contact % versus hard-hit %. Anytime a pitcher’s soft contact % comes within 5% of his hard-hit %, you know you have something special. A single-digit barrel % will indicate the same. Also, look at his pull % versus his opposite-field %. If a pitcher gives up a much higher percentage of pulled hits than hits to the opposite field, then he’s not fooling anyone. Hitters are barreling up the ball on him and making solid contact. Another indicator of the potential to miss bats is an examination of your golden arm’s pitch repertoire. If he has a changeup that’s at least 10 mph slower than his fastball, you have a rare animal. It’s something that separates one golden arm from another if you’re evaluating which one to draft or acquire.
“LOOK MA, I’VE GOT A NEW PITCH!”
Ever wonder if a relief pitcher’s career year can be sustained? Should you draft him based on that career year, or will he regress? You can be confident he can maintain his success if he added a brand new pitch or dramatically increased his use of a pitch from the previous season. You then have an explanation for his newfound success, and you can dismiss the notion that it was an outlier in an otherwise pedestrian career.
A.J. Minter was a hot commodity when he first came up with the Braves but failed. Then last year, he lowered his ERA from 7.06 to 0.83. Was he just lucky in a short season? Not when you examine his pitch usage from 2019 to 2020. He completely abandoned the cutter he threw 44.6% of the time in 2019 and added a slider, which he threw 42.6% of the time in 2020 after not at all the previous season. Now you have a reason for the first real success he’s ever experienced at the major league level.
Similarly, if you’re wondering whether or not Lucas Sims will be in the late-inning or even closer mix for the Reds this year, look no further than his pitch usage. He improved his ERA from 4.60 to 2.65 last season while increasing his slider usage from 17.3% to 34% of the time. Do you think Yimi Garcia will be the closer for the Marlins this year? He lowered his ERA from 3.61 to 0.60 last season while increasing his cutter usage from 11% to 28.6% of the time. Now you have a reason why his K/9 jumped from 9.5 in 2019 to 11.4 in 2020. Now you know why he missed bats with a higher frequency.
THE SNEAKY STARTING PITCHER
A starting pitcher in real baseball rarely comes into a game in relief except in extreme extra innings (before the “magical man on 2nd” made 17 and 18 inning games extinct) or the postseason. But in fantasy baseball, you can look for relievers who, for one reason or another, gained starting pitcher eligibility and insert them into a SP slot to gain additional opportunities for a hold and, in rare cases, a save. He may have only been a spot starter, or he may have served as an opener. Keep your eyes open for the same situation to develop during the season. This move is only safe in roto leagues where you won’t be risking negative points if this rogue SP incurs a loss or blown save. Look to our old innovative friends in Tampa Bay for the best possibilities for these sneaky starting pitchers. Pitchers like Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, Ryan Thompson, and John Curtiss could both serve as openers and get plenty of save and hold opportunities. But other teams may certainly follow as success breeds copycats. Just make sure your sneaky starting pitcher is not a staff filler who performed so dismally in a starting capacity that he was banished to the bullpen to mitigate his ineffectiveness.
THE ABSENT STARTING PITCHER
If your roster mandates the inclusion of a certain number of relief pitchers and a certain number of pitchers who could either be a reliever or a starter, you might want to employ the absent starting pitcher in points leagues. If your pitching staff requires four RP slots and two P slots, which could either be a starter or reliever, and your roster only has four effective relievers whom you trust, don’t settle for drafting questionable relievers to fill those two P slots. It might be better to put starting pitchers who are not starting in those 2 spots. In a points league, a zero is better than the negative points for a blown save or loss you might incur by putting questionable relievers in there. If you have devoted enough draft picks to always have six effective relievers on your points league roster, then you’re all set. See above for ways to recognize those relievers. But if you have decided to concentrate more draft picks in other areas, don’t feel you have to put a reliever in those two spots. Alfred Lord Tennyson famously wrote, “tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.” If Lord Tennyson dabbled in fantasy baseball, he might have written: “tis better to have taken a zero than to get negative points and lose the week.”
I am also the co-host of a weekly podcast about fantasy baseball. We even discussed this very topic in episode two, which can be found on our anchor page.
Feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @BrianDaring1.
