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MLB Predictions

You are here: Home / Baseball / MLB Predictions

By: Christopher Zelaya - Posted: March 30, 2021 Filed Under: Baseball

As the long-awaited 2021 season approaches, I wanted to throw out some predictions for this upcoming season. I will go division-by-division, listing both final standings, rookie of the year, Cy Young, and MVP candidates for 2021. With that said, let’s jump right in.

American League

Rookie of the Year Candidates

Ryan Mountcastle, OF, BAL – Mountcastle has raked at every level of the minors he’s played thus far, and while 2020 was a small sample size, he still put up solid numbers. Look for Mountcastle to be among the leaders of this season’s rookie class. I expect Mountcastle to slug over 25 home runs and a .300 AVG in 2021.

Randy Arozarena, OF, TB – If Arozarena can continue his 2020 post-season success, he will be in a prime position to lead the pack of what will certainly be an impressive collection of AL rookies. Expect Arozarena to be a member of the 20/20 club in 2021.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, CHW – Vaughn may very well be one of the highest touted hitting prospects in the White Sox organization dating back to Frank Thomas. Vaughn’s power is un-questionable, and just the fact he’s made the opening day roster for 2021 should have fans everywhere grinning ear-to-ear at the sheer possibility of watching a potential 30+ home run season from this youngster.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – Kelenic will not start the 2021 season with the Mariners, but fans should fully expect him to make his debut this year. Kelenic had a good spring before being knocked out with an injury. Look for him to quickly regain his early spring success and develop long-term roots in the Mariners OF. Kelenic is a prime candidate to go 15/15 in 2021 with 20/20 upside in 2022 and beyond.

Triston McKenzie, P, CLE – McKenzie will start the year in the Indians rotation. While his stuff is good enough for the majors, he’ll need the defense behind him to step up and make some plays, especially in the mix-n-match Cleveland OF. I expect McKenzie to post a 9-7 record with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 2021.

Nate Pearson, P, TOR – Pearson should join the Blue Jays rotation once he’s fully recovered from his groin strain and while his 2020 performance was anything but stellar, look for Pearson to settle in as a solid #2 arm in the Jays rotation. Pearson should post a 7-4 record with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.

Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BOS – Dalbec raked this spring, hitting 7 home runs with a 1.214 OPS and a .392 OBP. As such, he will open the 2021 season as the Red Sox starting 1B, where he will need to continue to shine, especially with fellow Sox prospect Triston Casas, waiting in the minors. Dalbec should hit 30 home runs in 2021, but his AVG is projected at .230, so fans should temper expectations.

Cy Young Candidates

  1. Shane Bieber, CLE
  2. Lucas Giolito, CHW
  3. Tyler Glasnow, TB
  4. Gerrit Cole, NYY
  5. José Berrios, MIN

The Cy Young, at this point, is nearly impossible to predict; however, don’t be too surprised if these 5 pitchers are all vying for the top spot come September.

That being said, I do believe Bieber will lead the back with Giolito riding his coattails and possibly jockeying for the top spot throughout the season. The other three pitchers are, in my opinion, honorable mentions, but when it’s all said and done, I can see it boiling down to Bieber vs. Giolito.

MVP Candidates

  1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
  2. José Ramirez, 3B, CLE
  3. Bo Bichette, SS, TOR
  4. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, NYY
  5. Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU

To see Mike Trout in the MVP voting is nothing new but this year, I feel he takes home yet another MVP title. Admittedly, I have a slight man-crush on Mike Trout; I mean, who doesn’t, especially in fantasy, right? The man is simply the best all-around player day-in and day-out for the last several years.

Perhaps the biggest surprise this year, for some, will be Bo Bichette finishing in the top-5 but make no mistake, this young man will be the MVP candidate for many years to come.


AL East Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Yankees: 100-62
  2. Rays: 87-75
  3. Blue Jays: 85-77
  4. Red Sox: 80-82
  5. Orioles: 68-94

My Projections

  1. Yankees: 92-70
  2. Rays: 90-72
  3. Blue Jays: 89-73
  4. Red Sox: 70-92
  5. Orioles: 63-99

AL Central Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Twins: 92-70
  2. Indians: 86-76
  3. White Sox: 80-82
  4. Royals: 72-90
  5. Tigers: 66-96

My Projections

  1. Twins: 90-72
  2. Indians: 89-73
  3. White Sox: 82-80
  4. Royals: 75-87
  5. Tigers: 62-100

AL West Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Astros: 92-70
  2. Angels: 87-75
  3. Athletics: 83-79
  4. Mariners: 71-91
  5. Rangers: 68-94

My Projections

  1. Astros: 94-68
  2. Angels: 87-75
  3. Athletics: 83-79
  4. Mariners: 68-94
  5. Rangers: 62-100

National League

Rookie of the Year Candidates

Ian Anderson, RHP, ATL – Ian Anderson will open the 2021 season the #3 starter for the Braves rotation but make no mistakes, this 22-year-old has some filthy stuff. I have Anderson projected to finish with a 12-5 record, 3.62 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP.

Sixto Sánchez, RHP, MIA – The Marlins will have Sixto open the 2021 season at their alternate training site to open the season. However, please make no mistake about it; Sixto will pitch in the majors in 2021. I expect Sánchez to finish the year with a 7-5 record, 3.86 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP.

MacKenzie Gore, P, SD – Gore will open 2021 in AAA but make no mistakes, fans should expect him to debut this year. The Padres will be cautious with his IP, like most every ball club in the majors, so expectations should be tempered, but even with that said, I expect Gore to post 5-2 record, with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 2021.

Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD – For some, Lux may be a surprise pick for ROY candidate because he’s played in parts of 2 seasons. However, his 2019 and 2020 seasons combined only add up to 138 total at-bats. Lux has been anything but stellar to date in the majors, but he did win the starting 2B job for the Dodgers to start 2021, which is no small feat given their talent and depth. I expect 2021 to be a break-out season for Lux where he posts a realistic 20 home run and 10 stolen base with a .275 AVG.

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT – The Pirates organization, as a whole, doesn’t have many bright spots to talk about. For the most part, fans need to cling to the rebuilding idea in hopes that in a few years, their team will be better. The single outlier to this realism is Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes, in 2020, put up some big numbers in just 24 games. If Hayes can continue his 2020 splash over the course of a 162-game season, Pirates fans may find their silver lining to what will surely be a long season.

Cy Young Candidates

  1. Jacob deGrom, NYM
  2. Walker Buehler, LAD
  3. Aaron Nola, PHI
  4. Yu Darvish, SD
  5. Trevor Bauer, LAD

Barring injury, I don’t see any pitching in the NL and perhaps in all of baseball, outperforming Jacob deGrom. There is a big reason deGrom is a top-5, if not top-3, pick in every fantasy format coming into this season. The man can pitch.

Perhaps the biggest surprise would be Trevor Bauer finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting. I admit I am not now, nor have I ever been a Bauer believer. Now I’m not saying Bauer is overrated in any regards, but I don’t think he’s realistically better than the other names on that list of elite pitchers.

MVP Candidates

  1. Ronald Acuña Jr, OF, ATL
  2. Juan Soto, OF, WSH
  3. Fernando Tatis Jr, SS, SD
  4. Mookie Betts, OF, LAD
  5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Ronald Acuña Jr is the prime candidate to win the NL MVP from both fantasy and real-world perspectives. Here is a guy who can go 40/40, drive in 100+ runs, score 100+ runs and be a beast defensively.

Juan Soto is, in my opinion, the only other player on this list who can give Acuña a run for the money in the MVP voting. Soto’s AVG will compensate for his lack of SB, but at the end of the day, Acuña has more talent around him, which will help him compile all-around better stats.


NL East Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Mets: 92-70
  2. Nationals: 83-79
  3. Phillies: 83-79
  4. Braves: 83-79
  5. Marlins: 70-92

My Projections

  1. Braves: 92-70
  2. Mets: 83-79
  3. Marlins: 82-80
  4. National: 80-82
  5. Phillies: 70-92

NL Central Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Brewers: 88-74
  2. Cubs: 85-77
  3. Reds: 79-83
  4. Cardinals: 78-84
  5. Pirates: 61-101

My Projections

  1. Brewers: 87-75
  2. Cubs: 85-77
  3. Cardinals: 79-83
  4. Reds: 78-84
  5. Pirates: 60-102

NL West Final Standings

PECOTA Projections

  1. Dodgers: 104-58
  2. Padres: 95-67
  3. Diamondbacks: 77-85
  4. Giants: 74-88
  5. Rockies: 61-101

My Projections

  1. Dodgers: 100-62
  2. Padres: 99-63
  3. Diamondbacks: 75-87
  4. Giants: 74-88
  5. Rockies: 59-103

Follow @cmzelaya78

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