Last time I dropped bathroom reading-material on you guys, I discussed some prospects that are not a value at their rankings/ADPs. I want to reiterate that I am not labeling those guys busts, but the butter may not be worth the churn. The last article may have angered people if you owned shares in any of those players, but some (here in the DSE community) saw it as a “buy-low” opportunity if anyone was subscribing to what I was selling.
I want to do the opposite this week and talk about some prospects who get overlooked. Some may not be on any top-100 rankings, and maybe even go undrafted depending on the league you play in. Here is an excellent example of where fantasy championships can be won and lost. Anyone can draft known commodities, and barring injury, compete. When you get the production that outweighs the price is when you cash in.
I shared some of the things I look for in evaluating prospects last time and would to drop some more pearls.
Stats With A Grain of Salt:
Baseball is all about numbers and stats; however, we do need to look at the context. The best example is The Pacific Coast League (PCL). In the PCL, hitting reigns supreme. Almost everyone puts up eye-popping numbers in the PCL, the last stop before the show. The ballparks, much like Coors Field in the senior circuit, contribute mainly to the increased offense, along with the weather. All the gaudy numbers for batters work opposite for pitchers, as they see inflated ERA and WHIP, amongst other stats. How can you evaluate these performances? For pitchers, look at the Strikeout-to-Walk ratio. And for hitters, look at the same! In a league where they are playing funny ball, we want to see the command of the strike zone, regardless of which side of the ball. Don’t forget to take into account the league a player has produced at most recently.
Showing Up for Work:
We all know some players, for one reason or another, get injured more than others. If a player is missing games due to injury in the minors, it is a big red flag. Humans do not get healthier as they get older: science. There are plenty of one-time injuries for young players who never have issues again. I am not a doctor and won’t comment more on the subject. Just be aware of a player’s injury history.
Now let’s dish some tips to get you paid!
Matthew Allan, NYM, P
Heading into the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft, Allan was the highest-ranked pitcher and a projected top-10 pick. There were concerns over signing bonus demands and the threat of him choosing the Florida Gators, where he committed; he dropped into the 3rd round. Fast-forward, and guys like Alek Manoah and Nick Lodolo, selected near the top of the draft, makes almost all the ranking lists, while Allan is left out. As a result, Monoah and Lodolo both get picked up in most fantasy leagues while Allan sits on the bench. At 17-years-old, the 6’3 225lb righty was throwing 97mph. When he matures and goes through a farm system with a rich history of producing flame-throwers, he could be spinning it in the triple digits.
CJ Abrams, SDP, SS
Abrams was the 6th overall pick in the 2019 Draft and is ranked quite high on many lists. He is as good of a prospect as there is in any minor league system right now. After being drafted, in 150 At-Bats between rookie-ball and A-ball, Abrams slashed .393/.436/.662. He showed impressive power for an 18-year-old with 13 doubles, 8 triples, and 3 HR. He must have been bored because he even added 15 stolen bases. This was only 150 ABs! Also, he struck-out only 14 times and walked 11. Power, speed, and plate discipline, he will be a top-5 prospect on every list by the end of the 2020 season.
Joey Cantillo, SDP, P
In a system that seems ready to burst with top-pitching prospects, Cantillo has gotten overlooked. I have not found him on any rankings. At 19-years-old he was able to throw 111.2 IP in A-ball. In those innings, he struck out 144, walked 34, and surrendered 70 hits. That is the kind of dominance that progresses quickly through a farm system. Possessing an easy, yet repeatable delivery, he is not known to be a hard thrower, but as the level of competition got higher in 2019, his pull-percentage went down. He could gain velocity as his teenage body fills in his 6’4 left-handed frame.
Marco Luciano, SFG, SS
Victor Victor Mesa grabbed all the attention as the “#1 International Signing” in 2018. At 22-years-old, Mesa struggled to a .235 BA between A and AA. In the meantime, the “#2 International Signing” of 2018 was putting on a power/speed/plate-discipline display like you rarely see from a 17-year-old. Luciano placed himself in the top-50 of many lists with his Rookie-Ball performance last year. 10 HR by a 17-year-old with a .322/.438/.616 slash will do that. He added nine steals for good measure. If he improves on those numbers at a higher level in 2020, he will find himself alongside CJ Abrams in many top-10 rankings.
Jesus Luzardo, OAK, P
I know he is a top prospect and gets drafted. Luzardo makes the list because he will open the 2020 campaign in the A’s rotation. The players we have looked at so far have high ceilings or are bargain prices. Luzardo is a bargain because, unlike other prospects taken in his range, he can help you win now. Sometimes in dynasty leagues, we are looking for the next great player. Sometimes we never find him. Luzardo is for the team in win-now mode. Other players that are ready for “The Show,” can be grabbed now, but Luzardo seems to come cheaper, and I like his potential better. Don’t overthink this one.
Hopefully, some of the players I mentioned will be building blocks for their MLB teams, as well as dynasty baseball teams. At the very least, you might not have to invest much give them a shot.
Any feedback is welcome, and you can follow me on Twitter @theCiccone