I have never been one to buy into what “they” say. If you tell me something is either good or bad, I will try it myself. I will watch a movie and make up my own mind. I practice this same policy for everything in life, but especially in fantasy baseball. I have never believed in drafting based on what “they” say or how “they” rank. After all, this is my money, my time and the most important thing we ALL have going on…right?
Prospects, and the ranking of prospects, personifies the idea of not taking “their” rankings to the highest magnitude. How many times have we seen a prospect with all the “tools” that never put up numbers? Have you ever wondered why? I will tell you a secret; they might have all the athletic talent in the world, but they are not good baseball players.
Before I share some of the more over-hyped prospects and allow you to sell-high or let someone else draft, I will point out some of the things I look for in prospects to predict a bright future.
Stats Don’t Translate:
The stats a player is putting up in the minor leagues are stats you would not want on your fantasy team at the MLB level. If the guy can’t give you useful numbers against lesser competition, can we expect it at the MLB level?
Player age:
The level he is at, and how long he has been at the level must be all taken into consideration.
Example: A 19-year-old (aka teenager) is tearing up High-A ball. He gets a mid-season call-up and struggles at AA. This player, because of age, deserves a chance to adjust to the higher level of competition the following season. Conversely, if a 22-year-old is struggling at A-ball where the best of the best often excel at a younger age, this is a red flag.
Most Young Guys Don’t Hit Homers:
Big time home runs are hard to find in the minors. If you do find them, it usually is accompanied by a 40% or so strikeout rate. That is a player destined for AAA stardom.
What you should look for is a teenager who hits double. Teenagers are not men yet. The doubles show the ability to hit the ball hard and drive it. As these players get older and stronger, those double turn into home runs.
If You Have Not Learned Discipline by Now:
Plate discipline, I love me some youngsters who have learned to be patient and draw a walk. The ability to draw a walk is one of those things beyond physical strength. But be careful, you don’t want the guy looking for a walk; that guy is probably not a good hitter, that’s why the walk is his go-to.
Those are a few things I look for when evaluating prospects. Before I get into any players, if I mention a player here, it does not mean I think he stinks, or will never be successful in the major leagues. The prospects I talk about below are, by my estimation, over-hyped. As such, I will be targeting some highly touted players.
Now to the click-bait:
Royce Lewis, MIN, SS
With 30 HR and 68 SB in 302 games played in MiLB, you might think it is absurd to list Lewis here. But with a top 10 ranking the past two seasons, I don’t see how he can live up to that. The power and speed are there, but Lewis profiles as one of the athletic guys who might not be an outstanding baseball player. At 20-years-old in High-A and AA, he slashed a combined .236/.290/.371; the numbers were fairly even between his two stops last season. How did he get to such an un-inspirable slash line? He struck out 123 times and walked just 39, in 517 Abs. At 6’2 and 210 lbs, a move to CF could be in his future. He reminds me of Mike Cameron: always a better real-life player because of his athleticism and glove than he was a fantasy standout. Is that worthy of a top-10 ranking?
Forrest Whitley, HOU, P
Whitley came into 2019 as a top-10 prospect and the #1 pitcher on most prospect lists. After an injury-plagued season where he got torched in 59 IP, he still falls into the top-20. No thanks! It was not just his injury-filled season last year. In 197 career MiLB, he has a 4.71 ERA and 95 walks. He has struck out a world of batters, 289, with some nasty stuff. At 6’7 and only 195 lbs, you have to wonder about last season’s injury. This kid has future closer written all over. I do not want to build my dynasty around a closer, and it will take that kind of pick to land him.
Adley Rutschman, BAL, C
Wait…down on a top-5 prospect who has shown the ability to draw more walks than strikeouts at a position deprived of offensive stars? Yup! It is because of the exact reason people love him, that I want nothing to do with him. It isn’t the best strategy to build your team around the upside of Buster Posey or Joe Mauer. Think back on the redraft leagues you have done. Did the team who jumped early and grabbed the best catcher ever win? I know it wasn’t often unless they hit on some late picks because everyone else was getting picks in the same round that produced a lot more. You can attach Joey Bart to this list for the same reason. I’m not building around a player who will give me so many days off a year.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT, 3B
Hayes is the classic example of a player whose MiLB numbers would be waiver-wire material in standard fantasy leagues (not deep DSE leagues). He has hit each level of the minor leagues at the appropriate age. Ke’Bryan does not seem to do anything poorly, but at the same time does not excel at anything. He will be a solid MLB player, but you can find a lot more upside at the cost he will be.
Mitch Keller, PIT, P
It might seem like I am baggin’ on the Buccos, but it is purely coincidental that two prospects from the same team have made my highly-exclusive list. Keller has been a top-20 prospect, and even cracked the top-10 on some lists. After a year where he showed to be hittable at the highest levels (7.13 ERA in 48 MLB Innings), Keller has seen his stock fall on many lists to the ’40s. This is still too rich. He is 22: almost a perfect age to be breaking into the big leagues. The issue with him is that his WHIP has gone up at every level as the competition has gotten more advanced. His K-rate is good, but nothing to brag about. He has the makings of a hittable, mid 4’s ERA, end of the rotation innings eater. Again, not the type of guy I want to be the foundation of my dynasty squad.
Now that you know whom to avoid, I know you are dying for me to tell you who is of value. Keep an eye out for my next article:
I Can’t Believe I Landed Player X: Undervalued Prospects to Target In Dynasty Baseball.
Any feedback is welcome, and you can follow me on Twitter @theCiccone