Teams overvalue athletes for a multitude of reasons such as popularity, personality, and of course, the right agent. Many will say that fame is a good reason to overpay for players because at the end of the day, it is a business, and the team has to sell tickets, and the more popular players that are on the field, the more tickets will be sold. Although this is a fair point, the general manager’s job is to put together the best team possible with the funds he has available, not to sell tickets. When a GM puts together a winning team, the team will sell more tickets than any “popular” player will draw. Many organizations that draft a player and see him turn into an excellent player fall in love with the player’s personality because they have become too attached to the player and do not want to see the player leave. Teams should not think about paying a person to do a job like any other run of the mill job. What organizations should look at is as buying production. I can pay thirty million for an asset that will produce .252 average, and a 2.1 WAR, which is a fan-favorite, or the organization can pay ten million for a player that will provide a .256 average and 3.6 WAR but isn’t nearly as popular with the fan base. To many teams make this comparison and take option one time after time.
One example of an overvalued player is Manny Machado. Last winter, Manny signed a ten year 300-million-dollar contract with the Padres. The Padres were near the top in available cap space at the time and little to no recognizable names to the casual fan. People around the organization said things like “this move will put the Padres back on the map” or “We finally have our face of the franchise.” This move made people excited for the Padres around baseball, but did this addition to the team make sense? Although Manny was the best infielder in this year’s free-agent market, I believe it was a reach for the Padres. The Padres made this move because they wanted to make a splash in the baseball world that would “put them back on the map” not because it was the best move to win more games in the future. Signing a player like Manny to a considerable deal has a time and place in baseball. The best time to hire a player to a deal like this is when you have a reliable team, and you want to push them over the hump to win the world series with a superstar. Many people will say they do have one of the best farm systems, and with a ten-year deal, Manny will be there once they become useful. A point like this is only valid if a player like Manny can continue being a superstar five years into his contract because that is how long it will take for the farm system to come into the majors and produce. Players with huge contracts over seven years or more tend to decline rapidly because of age, and they get complacent. With the cap space they had available, they could have signed two or three above average players with the chance to become a superstar.
One player that is a much better option based on the value at the third base is Eugenio Suarez. Suarez signed a six-year 66-million-dollar contract in 2018. Although he is the ninth highest-paid third baseman in the MLB, I believe his contract is of great value and a good sign by the reds. Suarez posted a .271 average .930 OPS and a 4.46 WAR in 2019. Compare this to Machado’s .256 average .796 OPS and 3.08 WAR for 2019. Machado makes nearly 20 million more per year and produced less in 2019. Machado did have a down year in 2019; he hit .296 in previous seasons. Huge contracts usually cause players to dip in production. Even if he averages .270 over the next nine years, which would last until he is 35 years old, will he out produce a player like Suarez enough to justify paying him 20 million more per year? I seriously doubt it. Another massive problem with Machado’s contract is the length. Teams get baited into giving players lengthy deals when the player has multiple options on the table to go elsewhere. The problem with giving a 27-year-old player a 10-year deal is who knows what kind of player he will be that long from now. By the time half of his contract is over, you are likely paying an average third baseman, one of the highest salaries in the league. Suarez has a contract that lasts until he is 33 by that time, he will show regression, but at least you are not paying a 35-year-old 30 million a year.
Part of the problem is projecting players. Suarez did have a down year in 2016 .248 average. A solid year in 2015 and 2018 was enough to show the Reds they needed to lock him up before he had a breakout season and could demand more money. It is especially important to recognize talent and lock them up in a contract before they can require a huge deal. Manny had a fantastic season in 2016 and 2018, giving the Padres hope he can produce this or close to it for ten years, which is a ridiculous idea. Teams should take more time deciding when to sign a player and what a player is worth to an organization. The worst thing you can do is hire a player to a giant contract because he is fan-favorite and sells tickets. When it comes to deals, timing is crucial and can be the difference in paying 30 million a year or 10 million a year for the same player. If a team recognizes they have a player with breakout potential offering a 5-6-year contract can be a great thing, essentially allowing the team to keep the player through his breakout years with money left to build around him. There are many massive contracts in sports, some workout, while others do not, but all are very risky.
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