Everyone has their idea of what a bust is. For this article’s purposes, I will focus on players whose difference in value (based on Total Points scoring) versus their Average Draft Position (ADP) is so significant that these players are considered grossly overvalued. Drafting these players where most fantasy GMs select them could significantly hinder your team before the season even starts.
Most of the players on this list are good, and some may even be the best available at their position. However, given their ADP, there are no doubt better values to be had.
Keep in mind that ADP is just a tool to help determine draft position based on where other fantasy GMs are selecting them. Be aware that ADP is all-inclusive of different league formats and roster constructions. Fantrax’s ADP numbers include Roto, Cats, Total Points, and Head-to-Head leagues, some with two starting catchers. Learning to analyze ADP will go a long way in being a better drafter.
This article presents five players whose past performance, roster status, and statistical metrics should factor into their draft cost and the capital you invest in them. In short, these players are the ones I think will disappoint based on the expectations most have based on their ADP.
J.T. Realmuto, PHI, C
Fantrax ADP: 46.36
This is the second year in a row that Realmuto has made my list. However, I still believe he is arguably the best catcher in baseball for fantasy production. Realmuto’s ADP makes him a 3rd round draft pick in a 14-team league. For clarity, I believe Realmuto’s ADP is such because of leagues that require two catchers. Nobody in a total points league (that requires one starting catcher, as all DSE leagues do) ought to be drafting a catcher this early. The difference between Realmuto and the 14th best catcher will likely be about 200 fantasy points for the year (assuming an entire season is played). If a wise fantasy GM uses Tiers in determining draft value, one will likely find players from other positions that will make up about 3X the value in the same ADP range. There are also three metrics I’d like to point out that might indicate his production will fail to meet expectations in 2021:
- Realmuto had a Barreled Ball Percentage last year that was slightly more than twice his career average ( thus likely unsustainable).
- His xwOBA was somewhat higher than his wOBA in 2020, indicating he slightly over-performed.
- Realmuto has seen his Batting Average for Balls In Play (BABIP) fall for the 4th straight year.
I think no one should be drafting a catcher in the first 200 players off the board in a total points league.
Keston Hiura, MIL, 2B
Fantrax ADP: 71.02
This is also the second consecutive year that Hiura has made my list. I realize that 2020 was a shortened season and may not indicate what a player will do over a more extended statistical range, but I warned everyone last year he would fail to meet expectations. From 2019 to 2020, Hiura saw his Batting Average drop from .303 to .212, and his weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) fell from 107 (100 is league average) to an abysmal 85. For his two years in The Bigs, Hiura now has a total of 594 plate appearances (about the average for an entire MLB season). He has struck out at an alarming rate of 32.3% in his career, and last year was worse than his rookie campaign. Additionally, Hiura’s BABIP dropped from .402 to .273. These drops are so significant it makes one wonder whether he is a superstar or less than the average hitter. In truth, I have Hiura to be the 14th best at the Keystone and the “replacement” standard in most evaluations. In the 5th round, an ADP is an overvaluation of grave proportions as I have his value estimated to be worth beyond the 15th round in a 14-team total points league.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS, SP
Fantrax ADP: 72.23
Strasburg’s ADP suggests that he is being selected in the 5th round of drafts. The incredibly talented right-handed pitcher has a very long history of injury and only appeared in two games last year for five innings pitched. Strasburg underwent surgery in August for Carpal Tunnel Neuritis in his pitching hand. I cannot ever remember a pitcher having surgery for this type of nerve damage in the past to make comparable recovery estimations. Of further concern is the fact that Strasburg has lost velocity on his fastball for five straight years. A look at his pitching career will reveal that Strasburg has only eclipsed 160 innings four times in his 11 seasons. The Nationals are betting that he will be a legitimate comeback player of the year candidate. I project Strasburg’s stats to be comparable to both Mike Minor and Griffin Canning this season (in Total Points), and they are being drafted in the 19th and 20th rounds. Taking Strasburg 15 rounds ahead of where he ought to be taken is either a risky (if not overly optimistic) bet or just bad judgment.
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR, OF/DH
Fantrax ADP: 79.41
Let’s state the obvious here: Hernandez was having an MVP caliber season last year before getting put on the Injured List in September and was rewarded with a one-year deal over $4 Million to return to the Jays. So why is he on this list? First and foremost, Hernandez seems to be the odd-man-out after the wild Free Agency signings this winter by Toronto and is the 4th outfielder now behind at least one other player at each outfield position according to published Blue Jay depth charts. Hernandez ought to be in line for daily work as a designated hitter, but that too may be contested with Rowdy Tellez if Vladimir Guerrero, Jr does not make the transition back to third base as is expected. The other issue I see is that although Hernandez was upper echelon in most hitting statistics last year, it came by way of over-producing in nearly every hitting metric available. Most notably, Hernandez hit above his career average in BABIP, wOBA, wRC+, Hard Hit % and HR/FB ratio by not just a little bit by a lot – so much in fact that its sustainability would be statistically tough to conceive. I believe, for a full-length regular season, the numbers for Hernandez will be normalized towards his mean, and he establishes himself as the 4th best OF in Toronto and an above-average player. To think he is worth a 5th or 6th round pick in a start-up draft is a mistake given all the factors to consider.
Edwin Diaz, NYM, RP
Fantrax ADP: 100.41
In total points scoring, relief pitchers are a lot like catchers in that most of them ought not to be drafted before pick 200. My projected rankings, based on total points and DSE roster requirements, places Diaz at 215th overall. Diaz is considered one of the better relievers in MLB and has trouble keeping a job because his reliability is so erratic from season to season; it is all you need to know about drafting a reliever or closer this high. Diaz’s draft value is based on his projected role as the Mets’ Closer. The metrics are generally right for Diaz, and I don’t want to waste time trying to nitpick his statistics. Diaz has a very high ceiling if he remains in the Closer role. His history makes drafting him based on that ceiling a risky proposition.
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