A word about my Must Start/Sit selections: I try to avoid listing Must Start players that are obvious plays and avoid deep depth chart players in my Must Sit selections. I primarily consider matchups that are exploitable on either side of the ball, and in essence, I offer Hot Takes with statistically backed confidence.
QB Must Start
Jared Goff, LAR
The Rams are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for a Seahawks defense that is possibly the worst they have ever had under head coach Pete Carrol. Every pass-catching option for Los Angeles is a gross mismatch against their Seattle counterparts. As long as the Rams offensive line keeps Goff’s jersey clean, he should be able to find the no-doubt open man on any given passing play.
QB Must Sit
Kirk Cousins, MIN
The Vikings quarterback has been consistently below average this year and faces a defense in the Bears that is 4th in the league at denying QBs fantasy points. Chicago has been allowing opposing QBs 218 yards on 20 attempts over the last month. Those numbers are comparable to what Cousins have produced in his previous four starts. Cousins might overcome his (and the Bears) averages, but I highly recommend another option this week.
RB Must Start
Antonio Gibson, WAS
The Washington Football Team rookie running back has been excellent but inconsistent this year. Fortunately for him, the Lions are atrocious against the run this year, and opposing running backs (as a team) have exploited them to the tune of an average stat line of 182 combined yards, 5 receptions, and a touchdown. Washington will want to protect Alex Smith at all costs this week, and Gibson is in line for a 20+ fantasy point day in my estimation.
Nick Chubb, CLE
Chubb is slated to be activated from the Injured List, and despite Kareem Hunt’s outstanding performance in his absence, it is still Chubb’s job. Early reports out of Browns practice are that Chubb is not limited running up to this week’s contest with Houston. The Texans are the second-worst team league-wide at permitting fantasy points to running backs. Both Chubb and Hunt should feast, but I have Chubb projected to get a touchdown on 100 combined yards and a couple of receptions.
RB Must Sit
Jerrick McKinnon, SF
The 49ers are riddled with injuries and appear to have a different standout running back each week. McKinnon was on display last week, so I have little confidence in him this week to do well (outside of kick returns where he has excelled of late – DSE scoring accounts for this wrinkle in his game). The Saints are 3rd best in the league at stopping opposing running backs from a fantasy perspective. If McKinnon does well, it will be because of kick returns, and that is not something a GM wants to rely upon.
Patriots RBBC, NEP
Once again, I list an entire team Running Back By Committee situation in my Must Sit list. The Ravens hold opposing RBs to less than 100 combined yards as a team and about 5 receptions total to the position. James White has the best opportunity as a pass catcher, but Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead will struggle against a stout front seven.
WR Must Start
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Since returning from injury, the Giants receiver has been on fire receiving at least 8 targets in each of his three games and accumulating 5 Red Zone looks in that same period. Shepard faced the Eagles just a few weeks ago and amassed 17.9 fantasy points. Based on my research, Shepard should draw Nickell Robey-Coleman (ranked 75th by Pro Football Focus) for most of his coverage, and that is a severe mismatch in favor of the wide receiver.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
I am hesitant to list the Steelers wideout here because his starting quarterback is on the COVID-19 list and nursing two bad knees. However, Smith-Schuster seems to have woken up not only himself but the Pittsburg offense in general. The receiver has been targeted 29 times in the last three games, and the Bengals defense is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most pass defense metrics. If Big Ben is playing, JuJu is a Must Start.
Jarvis Landry, CLE
The Browns receiver is here mostly because the Texans defense is the absolute worst in the league at giving up points to opposing team WR1s (DJ Chark, Devonte Adams, and AJ Brown have embarrassed them in their last three contests). Landry has been targeted at least 5 times in each of the previous five games, and I defer back to the mantra that targets and volume are kings in fantasy football.
WR Must Sit
Damiere Byrd, NEP
So many metrics say Byrd should have a good day: Patriots are 7.5 point underdogs, so they should be throwing more; Byrd is averaging more than 11 fantasy points in his last six dog games. However, New England is playing Baltimore, and Byrd should be drawing Jimmy Smith (2nd best cover corner in the league right now for fantasy purposes) for most of his coverage. This is a tough matchup to overcome.
Chris Conley, JAX
Jaguars are an impressive 14 point underdogs this week against the Packers, and game flow ought to be in Conley’s favor. Green Bay has been extremely good at shutting down secondary receivers this year and is the 4th best in the league at doing so. I have Conley projected for between 5 and 8 fantasy points (rarely have to forecast with such a large spread).
Willie Snead, BAL
The Ravens receiver has been creeping up on many people’s radar of late. I am here to tell you that you can ignore that blip for at least one more week. The Patriots are the best in the league at denying secondary receivers fantasy points this year. Snead will be lining up against Jonathan Jones for most of the game, which is difficult to overcome. I am confident Snead will be a mere afterthought by the game end.
TE Must Start
Jonnu Smith, TEN
This is a bit of a gut feel pick for the week. As the Colts focus on running back Derrick Henry, I think Smith will slip between linebackers and defensive backs to get open. Indianapolis is traditionally one of the best defenses against the tight ends but has allowed an average of 55 yards on 5 catches to TEs over the last month. Expect at least a double-digit fantasy output.
TE Must Sit
Logan Thomas, WAS
The Lions are terrible at stopping the run and surprisingly good at shutting down downfield pass catchers, whether they are wide receivers or tight ends. Detroit usually has Jayron Kearse shadow tight ends, and he has made the Lions a Top 10 defense at denying fantasy points to the position.
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