A word about my Must Start/Sit selections: I try to avoid listing Must Start players that are obvious plays and avoid deep depth chart players in my Must Sit selections. I primarily consider matchups that are exploitable on either side of the ball, and in essence, I offer Hot Takes with statistically backed confidence.
QB Must Start
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR
Over the last month, the Carolina signal-caller has a QB rating of exactly 100.0, and he is facing a Falcon Defense that is ranked 27th in allowing fantasy points to their opposing quarterbacks. Although the Panthers are favored, the over/under is more than 50 points, suggesting a bit of a shootout. Bridgewater ought to be in line for a 300-yard passing day with 25 completions and 2 touchdowns.
QB Must Sit
Sam Darnold, NYJ
After all my analysis, I feel like Darnold will be the starting quarterback with the worse fantasy week (and remember Tua Tagovailoa is playing the Rams, so that says a lot). The Chiefs defense has been soul-crushing to most quarterbacks this year and is 6th best in the league at limiting opposing QBs to fantasy points. Not even a healthy Jamison Crowder is going to help the Jests QB succeed.
RB Must Start
Jonathan Taylor, IND
The Colts rookie is making progress each week, and I predict more than 125 combined yards and more than 20 fantasy points (hoping someone does not vulture a touchdown from him). The Lions defense is particularly bad versus running backs (ranked 30th in giving up fantasy points to the position this year). Play Taylor with confidence this week.
Darrel Henderson, LAR
I am going out on a limb with this pick (keep in mind I avoid obvious starts). I am basing this one primarily on my “eye test,” watching the Rams rushing attack closely. Henderson is the only Rams runner to make outstanding second efforts, and he seems to provides the right pace when the offense is firing on all cylinders. Factor in that the Dolphins are almost a bottom-tier defense at stopping opposing running backs, and Henderson should provide more than 12 fantasy points this week.
RB Must Sit
Mark Ingram, BAL
Playing Ingram, is a two-fold problem this week. The Ravens backfield situation seems to be getting murkier each week (in terms of who is the lead back), and this week they are playing a stout Steelers rushing defense. Pittsburgh is allowing opponents’ running backs to less than 64 yards a game over the last month. If the Ravens are thriving on the ground, Lamar Jackson will likely take advantage of his pocket breaking down and linebackers falling back into coverage.
Justin Jackson, LAC
There are not many things the Broncos are good at this year, but count stopping the run as one of them. Denver rarely gives up rushing touchdowns and limits their opposing running backs to just 61 team yards per game over the last month. For that matter, Jackson (and Joshua Kelly) seems to be getting left out in the downfield offense that has emerged since Justin Herbert has been starting over Center.
WR Must Start
Tyler Boyd, CIN
I was tempted to list both Boyd and his counterpart AJ Green here, but think Boyd will have the better day. Boyd ought to line up opposite Titans defensive back Kristian Fulton, who is not very good. Tennessee is the worst in the NFL at allowing opposing teams’ WR2 to score fantasy points. Bengals being a 6 point underdog (and 24 implied team points), also suggests a game flow that should feature a lot of downfield passing.
D.J. Moore, CAR
The Panthers wideout has gained precisely 93 yards in each of his last three games and scored touchdowns in two of them. Falcons are giving up an average of 233 yards to opposing WRs this season. Moore has emerged as one of Bridgewater’s favorite targets (averaging almost 8 targets per game). On paper, this is a no-brainer must start.
Cooper Kupp, LAR
The Rams slot receiver has been somewhat of a disappointment this season. This should be the game where Kupp reminds everyone why they drafted him as early as they did. The Dolphins are shopping Xavier Howard this week for trade (who will try to remind the league why he is one of the top 5 paid cornerbacks), and he will likely shadow Robert Woods. Subsequently, Kupp should draw Nik Needham (who is one of the worse cover defensive backs in the league – according to Pro Football Focus). I am expecting more than 5 catches and 100 yards against a porous Miami secondary.
WR Must Sit
A quick note about my WR Must Sits for this week. After analyzing wide receivers league-wide and identifying who would make my list, I realized they are the same three players I listed last week. I stand by my analysis and will not pick other players for the sake of being different.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN
The Broncos rookie will be lining up against the Chargers’ Desmond King for most of the contest, and this does not bode well for Jeudy. In the last five weeks, only extremely experienced WRs have found success against Los Angeles (T. Hill, M. Evans, and E. Sanders), while inexperienced WRs (DJ Chark and D.J. Moore) haven’t been much more than a blip on the radar. Jeudy will struggle.
Breshad Perriman, NYJ
I feel bad for the Jets wideout. Perriman has the disadvantage of having Darnold throwing to him (whom I have also listed as a Must Sit) and is facing one of the most challenging corners in the league in the Chiefs’ Breshaud Breeland. Perriman is not worthy of even a flex-start, and I would be surprised if he finishes in the Top 50 at his position for the week.
Anthony Miller, CHI
The Bears offense has been imploding for weeks, which has not helped the underachieving Miller. Remember when he was the talk of the combine and draft not so long ago? The Saints secondary has been inconsistent this season and has allowed some WRs to be very fantasy relevant at times. However, my analysis (based on whey Miller usually lines up and will cover him) shows that the Bears speedster will face off against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. The Saints defensive back ranks as 24th best in coverage in the league this season.
TE Must Start
Mike Gesicki, MIA
This week is a very opportunistic situation for the tight end who has been coming into his own of late. The Rams are very good at covering wide receivers and terrible at picking up tight ends (who end up finding seams and zone coverage spots to exploit). Expect Gesicki to be the recipient of many looks from rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa who will be under extreme pressure from the Rams front four and tight coverage downfield.
TE Must Sit
Jack Doyle, IND
The veteran tight end made a bit of a splash last week, and many may believe he is back in the saddle and be tempted to start him this week – Do not! The Lions defense is good at stopping tight ends with their linebackers (who seem to ignore the run – see Taylor as my Must Start RB above). I believe last week was a fluke, and this week’s matchup will keep Doyle irrelevant for at least another week.
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