In the world of fantasy sports, especially in dynasty leagues, we get excited about each season’s amateur draft. I mean, why not, right? For football, this is when we get a new batch of young, exciting players who could dominate in the league and help us win our next fantasy championship! The truly dedicated fantasy owners will spend endless hours researching players projected to go in the first few rounds of the NFL Draft in hopes to find that sure-fire, slam-dunk, no-doubt-about-it next big fantasy beast. Then, the more “relaxed” fantasy players look at a player’s projection for rounds 1 thru 3 of the NFL draft; filter out only the skill positions and rank them according to their projected draft slot. This massively flawed “relaxed” approach assumes that players taken in the first round are automatically better for fantasy. Man, I wish that was right!
In this article, I will point out that just because players are taken in round 1 does NOT automatically mean they will be fantasy gold or even fantasy relevant. But before I get into the numbers and analytics of this, I will lay out my tier breakdowns for each position before I post the players that fall into each tier. It should be noted upfront that all my tiers are based on Dynasty Sports Empire (DSE) IDP League Scoring and determined by calculating each player’s Points Per Game (PPG). I take the highest-scoring PPG player, who played at least 90% of the season, and use that PPG as my base for splitting each skill position into eight balanced tiers. It should also be noted that all players in Tiers 1 thru 4 are considered “Above Replacement Value,” and players in Tiers 5 thru 8 are considered “Below Replacement Value.” I mention this because most of my round 4 “fliers” are tier 5 and as such should be considered “Below Replacement Value.”
Quarterbacks (QB)
From 2017 thru 2020, there have been 28 QBs taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft, 15 of which were taken in the first round. Of those 15 QBs, do you know how many fall into each of the above tiers? Better yet, would it shock you to discover that of those 28 QBs, only six would warrant a fantasy first-round selection? Some of you may be saying that any QB selected in rounds 2 thru 4 are just fliers a team is willing to take, and you would be right because none of the 13 QBs selected in rounds 2 thru 4 ranked higher than tier 4. But even still, that leaves 6 of the 15 first-round QBs scored enough fantasy points to call into Tiers 1 and 2. First, I will list my QB tiers, and then we’ll get into the who should have gone Rounds 1 thru 4 in your First-Year Player Drafts (FYPD).
QB Tiering Breakdown
- PPG >= 72.9 — Tier 1
- PPG >= 62.5 — Tier 2
- PPG >= 52.1 — Tier 3
- PPG >= 41.7 — Tier 4
- PPG >= 31.2 — Tier 5
- PPG >= 20.8 — Tier 6
- PPG >= 10.4 — Tier 7
- PPG > 0 — Tier 8
FYPD Round 1
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2017 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 1st Rd. | 1 |
2018 | Josh Allen | BUF | 1st Rd. | 1 |
2017 | Deshaun Watson | TEX | 1st Rd. | 2 |
2020 | Justin Herbert | SD | 1st Rd. | 2 |
2019 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 1st Rd. | 2 |
2020 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 1st Rd. | 2 |
FYPD (Late) Round 2
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2018 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2018 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky | BUF | 1st Rd. | 4 |
FYPD Round 3
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | Drew Lock | DEN | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2019 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2020 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 1st Rd. | 4 |
FYPD Round 4 “Fliers”
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2018 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 1st Rd. | 5 |
2019 | Dwayne Haskins | PIT | 1st Rd. | 5 |
Running Backs (RB)
From 2017 thru 2020, there have been 54 RBs taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft, 7 of which were taken in the first round. Of those 7 RBs, do you know how many fall into each of the above tiers? Better yet, would it shock you to discover that of those 54 RBs, only three would warrant a fantasy first-round selection? Would you be even more shocked if you told you that RBs taken in the 2nd round have a higher overall success rate than RBs taken in the 1st round? The truth is, of the 7 RBs taken in the 1st, only one score enough points to fall between tiers 1 thru 3, whereas three RBs taken in the 2nd round fall between tiers 1 thru 3. First, I will list my RB tiers, and then we’ll get into the who should have gone Rounds 1 thru 4 in your FYPD.
RB Tiering Breakdown
- PPG >= 25.3 — Tier 1
- PPG >= 21.7 — Tier 2
- PPG >= 18.1 — Tier 3
- PPG >= 14.4 — Tier 4
- PPG >= 10.8 — Tier 5
- PPG >= 7.2 — Tier 6
- PPG >= 3.6 — Tier 7
- PPG > 0 — Tier 8
FYPD Round 1
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2017 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 3rd Rd. | 1 |
2017 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | 2nd Rd. | 1 |
2017 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 1st Rd. | 1 |
FYPD Round 2
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 2nd Rd. | 3 |
2019 | David Montgomery | CHI | 3rd Rd. | 3 |
2018 | Nick Chubb | CLE | 2nd Rd. | 3 |
FYPD Round 3
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | Josh Jacobs | LVR | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2018 | Nyheim Hines | IND | 4th Rd. | 4 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson | WTF | 3rd Rd. | 4 |
2020 | D’Andre Swift | DET | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2019 | Miles Sanders | PHI | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Joe Mixon | CIN | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
FYPD Round 4 “Fliers”
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2017 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | 3rd Rd. | 5 |
2017 | Chase Edmonds | ARI | 4th Rd. | 5 |
2018 | Ronald Jones | TB | 2nd Rd. | 5 |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 1st Rd. | 5 |
2020 | JK Dobbins | BAL | 2nd Rd. | 5 |
2017 | James Connor | PIT | 3rd Rd. | 5 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette | TB | 1st Rd. | 5 |
Wide Receivers (WR)
From 2017 thru 2020, there have been 69 WRs taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft, 13 of which were taken in the first round. Of those 13 WRs, do you know how many fall into each of the above tiers? Better yet, would it shock you to discover that of those 69 WRs, only two would warrant a fantasy first-round selection? Would you be even more shocked if you told you that of all the 69 WRs taken, none of them put up Tier 1 numbers in fantasy last season and that statistically, most WRs took in the last 4 drafts put up Tier 8 (21.7%) or Tier 5 (14.5%) numbers in fantasy? First, I will list my WR tiers, and then we’ll get into the who should have gone Rounds 1 thru 4 in your FYPD.
WR Tier Breakdown
- PPG >= 22.6 — Tier 1
- PPG >= 19.4 — Tier 2
- PPG >= 16.2 — Tier 3
- PPG >= 12.9 — Tier 4
- PPG >= 9.7 — Tier 5
- PPG >= 6.5 — Tier 6
- PPG >= 3.2 — Tier 7
- PPG > 0 — Tier 8
FYPD Round 1
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | DK Metcalf | SEA | 2nd Rd. | 2 |
2018 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | 1st Rd. | 2 |
FYPD Round 2
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | A.J. Brown | TEN | 1st Rd. | 2 |
2020 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 1st Rd. | 3 |
FYPD Round 3
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | 3rd Rd. | 3 |
2020 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 1st Rd. | 3 |
2017 | Chris Godwin | TB | 3rd Rd. | 3 |
FYPD Round 4 “Fliers”
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2020 | Chase Claypool | PIT | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2019 | Terry McLaurin | WTF | 3rd Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 3rd Rd. | 4 |
2018 | D.J. Moore | CAR | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Corey Davis | NYJ | 1st Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Curtis Samuel | WTF | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2019 | Deebo Samuel | SF | 2nd Rd. | 4 |
2017 | Kenny Golladay | NYG | 3rd Rd. | 4 |
Tight Ends (TE)
From 2017 thru 2020, there have been 36 TEs taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft, 6 of which were taken in the first round. Of those 36 TEs, do you know how many fall into each of the above tiers? Better yet, would it shock you to discover that of those 36 TEs, none warrant a fantasy first, second or third-round selection? Why, you may ask? Its simple, none of the 36 TEs taken in rounds one thru 4 of the last 4 years drafts put up Tier 1, 2, or Tier 3 numbers in fantasy last season, and that statistically, most TEs put up Tier 8 (33.3%) or Tier 5 (25.0%) numbers in fantasy? The only TE with Tier 2 fantasy numbers was a 5th round selection, whom I will include in the below table. First, I will list my TE tiers, and then we’ll get into the who should have gone Rounds 1 thru 4 in your FYPD.
TE Tier Breakdown
- PPG >= 19.3 — Tier 1
- PPG >= 16.6 — Tier 2
- PPG >= 13.8 — Tier 3
- PPG >= 11.0 — Tier 4
- PPG >= 8.3 — Tier 5
- PPG >= 5.5 — Tier 6
- PPG >= 2.8 — Tier 7
- PPG > 0 — Tier 8
FYPD Round 1
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2017 | George Kittle | SF | 5th Rd. | 2 |
FYPD Round 2
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2018 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 3rd Rd. | 4 |
FYPD (Late) Round 3
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | TJ Hockenson | DET | 1st Rd. | 5 |
2018 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | 2nd Rd. | 5 |
2017 | Jonnu Smith | NE | 3rd Rd. | 5 |
2018 | Hayden Hurst | ATL | 1st Rd. | 5 |
FYPD Round 4 “Fliers
Year Drafted | Player | Team | Round Drafted | Tier |
2019 | Noah Fant | DEN | 1st Rd. | 5 |
2018 | Dalton Schultz | DAL | 4th Rd. | 5 |
2017 | Evan Engram | NYG | 1st Rd. | 5 |
2018 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 2nd Rd. | 5 |
2019 | Irv Smith | MIN | 2nd Rd. | 5 |
2017 | OJ Howard | TB | 1st Rd. | 5 |
If I’m frank, when I first started thinking about writing this article, I didn’t really know what I would discover, but the more I dug into the numbers, the more I was surprised with the results. I knew the basic premise of this was that first-round draft talent doesn’t always equate to first-round fantasy value, but what I found surprising was, depending on the position, the real value lies in the 2nd thru 4th round draft picks. Yes, of course, you can always make the argument that a player’s landing spot makes all the difference in the world. I mean, it is widely known that any skill position player, outside of QBs, that land in New England will never be fantasy gold. And as fantasy owners, we all understand that injuries can derail players’ seasons the same way as having either a not-so-hot QB under center or QBs having less than great receivers. However, the one aspect most fantasy owners seem to miss or not pay attention to is the trenches. I mean the offensive line that protects the QB and RB; that allows the playmakers to do just that. Giving the QB time to make a play, open holes for the RB to get that first step towards the end-zone. For these reasons, I believe that most NFL General Managers (GM) should utilize their first couple of picks in the draft to fortify the trenches and bolster their defense over-targeting, skill-position players. However, I am not now, nor will I ever be an NFL GM, and as such, I will stick to writing!